How Zelenskyy's ‘suit’ became the center of a massive Polymarket fight

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s outfit at a June 24 NATO meeting in the Netherlands has become the focal point of a fierce dispute between Polymarket bettors. 

A user on Polymarket,  a crypto-based  prediction platform,  created  a betting market that asked whether Zelenskyy would wear a suit before July. To settle the bet, a photo or video must show Zelenskyy wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30.

The market racked up nearly $79 million in volume. The result initially landed on “yes,” but has been disputed twice since and now awaits a final decision. 

On July 1, Polymarket said it was aware of a dispute on this market, and that at the time, “a consensus of credible reporting has not confirmed that Zelenskyy has worn a suit.” 

Arguments over what makes a suit 

Debate over Zelenskyy’s ensemble has those on social media  questioning  whether it’s a suit, a fitting blazer with a collared shirt and long pants, or if the trainers disqualify it from the suit classification. 

Those in favor argue that it’s all made from a similar cloth, with similar colors and has a formal appearance like a suit, with cuts and style being irrelevant. 

Those against are saying it’s a black shirt and a black jacket that resembles a casual blazer rather than a traditional suit jacket, and his trainers don’t match the rest of the outfit, making it not technically a full traditional suit. 

A community-run Polymarket account on X, Polymarket Intel,  classed  the Ukrainian President’s outfit as a suit. 

ChatGPT, when asked by Cointelegraph, said the outfit was not considered a suit as it lacks key elements of a traditional suit. It called it a military-style field jacket or tactical coat.

Meanwhile, Canadian men’s fashion industry writer and commentator Derek Guy, also known as the menswear guy on X, didn’t do much to solve the dispute,  saying  on June 26 he thinks Zelenskyy’s outfit is “both a suit and not a suit.” 

Second time’s the charm 

This isn’t the first time Zelenskyy’s outfit has caused issues on Polymarket. Another similar betting market  closed  on May 31 and sparked a debate about whether a similar-looking outfit Zelenskyy wore in a meeting in Germany that month was a suit. 

Polymarket eventually determined that it wasn’t a suit. Derek Guy also weighed in on that debate to  declare  that Zelenskyy was technically wearing a suit, which is defined as “just a garment where the jacket and pants have been cut from the same cloth.” 

Zelenskyy has been blasted for not wearing a suit to formal meetings with world leaders. 

Zelenskyy himself said he would wear a suit again when the war against Russia ended, Politico  reported  on March 22.  

A March 5 report by the Ukrainian media outlet The Kyiv Independent also  explained  that the Ukrainian President prefers a more casual military-style outfit because the war is still ongoing, and if he “puts on a suit, it means he agrees that the war is over.”

Polymarket controversy 

Polymarket has been at the center of several other controversies this year, such as the proposed TikTok ban in January, with arguments over the technical details of the outcome because  the platform was banned but still available  for use when the betting market closed. 

Polymarket employs UMA Protocol’s blockchain oracles for external data to settle market outcomes and verify real-world events. 

The UMA has faced allegations of going rogue in the past, or someone manipulating the oracle, like in the case of the bet over a  $7 million Ukraine mineral deal  in March. 

Meanwhile, a report on Thursday from  blockchain-powered economic database Truf.Network  argued  that proving the truth can be tricky because the entire market relies on “trust in the data,” and it is often “fragmented, unverifiable, and too often, manipulable.” 

“It’s not about who decides the truth, but whether everyone can verify it. When no one can verify a price, who won, what the score was, or even if it rained yesterday, the market itself collapses,” it said.“If the person verifying the outcome is also betting on the game, truth becomes debatable.”