Key Notes
- Bitcoin holds above $118,000 as the market awaits Fed policy clarity.
- Heat Macro Phase at 44% signals neutral market sentiment.
- Rate cut debate intensifies ahead of Powell’s announcement.
Bitcoin BTC $118 156 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $2.35 T Vol. 24h: $38.16 B is trading flat near $118,000, 4% below its all-time high of $123,000 set on July 14. The cryptocurrency market appears to be entering a cooling phase , with no strong signs of bullish or bearish dominance.
According to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr., the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase (currently at 44%) suggests a neutral stance. This metric, designed to reflect the broader sentiment of the Bitcoin market, takes into account ETF inflows, selling pressures, and overvaluation indicators.
Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase provides a single scalar value that reflects the current temperature of the Bitcoin market:
High values (closer to 50%) mean that most components (overvaluation assessment, profit-taking activity, LTH selling pressure, and ETF inflows) are at upper… pic.twitter.com/TtBW0CiVjp
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 30, 2025
At 44%, the index shows the traders are waiting for a catalyst to decide their next move. Profit-taking is slowly increasing, but a major sell-off or “mass exit” hasn’t begun. At the time of writing, the Crypto Fear & Greed index sits well into the “greed” region.
Meanwhile, Crypto analyst Crypto Dan explained that while the market recently experienced a short-lived overheating phase, it was far milder compared to corrections seen in 2024.
He added that since the latest rally wasn’t as aggressive, any upcoming correction is expected to be shorter and less severe. He expects a renewed upside potential later in the year, aligning with Arthur Hayes’ recent $250,000 price prediction for BTC in the Q4 2025.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation Builds
The market’s next big trigger could come from today’s US Federal Reserve policy announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to conclude its two-day meeting today, and all eyes are on Chair Jerome Powell’s statement at 2 PM ET.
The Fed is not the story. Powell is.
With a 97.9% probability of no rate change today, markets aren’t watching what the Fed does, but how Powell speaks.
The real question: Will he open the door to a September cut?🧵Let’s unpack the signals.👇
Economic projections deteriorated… pic.twitter.com/MQ5Aazabr2
— Gabriel Debach (@GabrielDebach) July 30, 2025
While markets expect rate cuts to begin in September, some believe they could be delayed until October, or even ruled out entirely for the rest of 2025.
Interestingly, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are reportedly considering “no” votes to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5%, even though both have previously advocated for cuts.
Meanwhile, political pressure is mounting, with President Donald Trump and White House allies pushing for major rate reductions. Trump recently stated that each 1% cut is equivalent to $360 billion in savings for the US.
Until Powell provides clarity, the crypto market, including the best shitscoins , is expected to remain cautious.
