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Fed July Interest Rate Decision Highlights: FOMC Wording Comparison, Powell's Term, and Fed Independence

Fed July Interest Rate Decision Highlights: FOMC Wording Comparison, Powell's Term, and Fed Independence

Cointime2025/07/30 23:25
By: Cointime

on July 31, the highlights of the July Fed interest rate decision are as follows:

FOMC statement:

1. Voting ratio: The interest rate decision may be passed by a vote of 9-2, with Directors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against.

2. Comparison of wording: It is expected that there will be no substantial changes, or the economic outlook uncertainty may be simplified, acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year.

3. Balance sheet reduction scale: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing $50 billion in US Treasuries and $350 billion in MBS per month).

Powell press conference:

1. Interest rate outlook: How to interpret the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will there be clues about the prospect of a rate cut in September?

2. Economic data: Emphasis on the importance of data, continuing the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decisions.

3. Inflation and tariffs: It may remain cautious, reiterating the maintenance of price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.

4. Term and independence: Faced with frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly unlikely to make a substantive response, expected to reaffirm maintaining independence and professionalism during the term.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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