Institutional Buying Pressure Aligned with Macro Tailwinds: Q3 Bitcoin Price Target is $190,000

Original Article Title: "Bitcoin Valuation Report Q3 25-Year Anniversary"

Original Source: Tiger Research

Key Highlights

· Acceleration of Bitcoin Institutional Adoption - U.S. 401(k) Retirement Investment Channel Opened, ETFs and Corporate Entities Continue Large-Scale Accumulation

· Best Environment Since 2021 - Global Liquidity at Historic Highs, Major Countries in Rate-Cut Mode

· Shift from Retail-Led to Institution-Led Market - Despite Overheating Signals, Institutional Buying Pressure Solidly Supports Downside Risks

Global Liquidity Expansion, Institutional Accumulation, and Regulatory Tailwinds Driving Bitcoin Adoption

There are currently three core drivers propelling the Bitcoin market: 1) ongoing global liquidity expansion, 2) accelerated institutional capital inflows, and 3) a crypto-friendly regulatory environment. These three factors working in concert have created the strongest upward momentum since the 2021 bull market. Bitcoin has risen by approximately 80% year-over-year, and we believe the factors that could disrupt this upward trend in the medium term are limited.

On the global liquidity front, a key highlight is that the M2 money supply of major economies has exceeded $90 trillion, reaching a historic high. Historically, M2 growth and Bitcoin price have exhibited similar directional patterns, indicating that if the current monetary expansion continues, there is still significant room for further appreciation (Exhibit 1).

Additionally, President Trump's pressure for rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance have paved the way for excess liquidity to flow into alternative assets, with Bitcoin being a primary beneficiary.

Simultaneously, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin is occurring at an unprecedented pace. U.S. spot ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, representing approximately 6% of the total supply, while just MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) holds 629,376 BTC (valued at $71.2 billion). The key is that these purchases represent a structural strategy rather than one-off trades. MicroStrategy Inc. continues to make purchases through convertible bond issuances, particularly signaling the formation of a new demand layer.

Furthermore, the executive order issued by the Trump administration on August 7 represents a game-changing factor. Opening up 401(k) retirement accounts to Bitcoin investments has created a potential channel to tap into an $8.9 trillion capital pool. Even with a conservative allocation of 1%, this would mean $890 billion—roughly equivalent to 4% of Bitcoin's current market value. Given the long-term holding nature of 401(k) funds, this development should not only contribute to price appreciation but also help reduce volatility. This marks a clear signal of Bitcoin's shift from a speculative asset to a core institutional holding asset.

Institutional-Driven Volume as Retail Activity Wanes

The Bitcoin network is currently undergoing a reorganization around large investors. The average daily number of transactions has decreased by 41% from 660,000 transactions in October 2024 to 388,000 transactions in March 2025, yet the average Bitcoin transfer value has actually increased. The growing number of high-value transactions from entities like MicroStrategy is expanding the average transaction size. This marks a shift in the Bitcoin network from a "small-value high-frequency" to a "large-value low-frequency" transaction pattern (Exhibit 2).

However, key metrics reveal imbalanced growth. While institutional restructuring is clearly driving up the Bitcoin network's value, transaction counts and active user numbers have yet to recover (Exhibit 3).

Fundamental improvements will need to be activated through BTCFi (Bitcoin-based decentralized finance) and other initiatives to energize the ecosystem, but these are still in early development stages and will take time to have a meaningful impact.

Overbought, Yet Institutional Support Provides Bottoming

On-chain metrics show some overheating signals; however, significant downside risks remain limited. The MVRV-Z ratio (measuring the current price relative to investors' average cost basis) is at 2.49, in the overheated zone, and recently spiked to 2.7, warning of a potential near-term pullback (Exhibit 4).

However, the aSOPR (1.019), tracking investors' realized profit/loss, and the NUPL (0.558), measuring the market's overall unrealized profit/loss, both remain in stable territory, indicating overall market health (Exhibit 5, 6).

In summary, while the current price relative to the average cost basis (MVRV-Z) is elevated, actual selling behavior occurs at a moderately profitable level (aSOPR), and the overall market has not yet reached an overprofitable zone (NUPL).

Institutional buying power surpassing retail buying power has supported this dynamic. Ongoing accumulation from entities like ETFs and MicroStrategy provides a solid price floor. A short-term pullback may occur, but a trend reversal seems unlikely.

Target Price $190,000, with 67% Upside Potential

Our TVM (Time-Value Money) methodology arrived at a target price of $190,000 using the following framework: We established a base price of $135,000 (excluding extreme fear and greed emotions from the current price), then applied a +3.5% fundamental indicator multiplier and a +35% macro indicator multiplier.

The fundamental indicator multiplier reflects an improvement in network quality—where although transaction count has decreased, transaction value is higher. The macro indicator multiplier captures three powerful forces: the continually expanding global liquidity (e.g., M2 surpassing $90 trillion), accelerated institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs holding 1.3 million BTC), and an improved regulatory environment (e.g., 401(k) eligibility unlocking $8.9 trillion).

From the current level, this implies a 67% upside potential. While the target is aggressive, it reflects the structural changes occurring as Bitcoin transitions from a speculative asset to institutional portfolio allocation.