Bitcoin dominance collapses, should we bet on the outsiders?

The crypto market likes to surprise. While bitcoin seemed unbeatable with a market share exceeding 62% this summer, its dominance has fallen to 55%. A decline reminiscent of other periods where crypto-alternatives shone, like Ethereum or Solana. Has the moment of revenge for altcoins come? Between institutional flows and macroeconomic decisions, the fourth quarter promises to be decisive.

Bitcoin retreats, crypto-alternatives lie in wait

Falling to 55% dominance, compared to 62% at the height of summer and unprecedented highs a year ago, bitcoin sends a clear signal: it is no longer the sole master on board. This loss of seven points echoes other cycles where altcoins took over. Solana already attracts new capital through digital asset treasuries, while Ethereum confirms its renewed dynamism.

For traders, this movement resembles the dawn of a new “altseason.” The platform Myriad Markets illustrates this binary climate:

The market resolves depending on the first condition reached: 63% if Bitcoin dominance meets or exceeds the upward target, or 53% if Bitcoin dominance falls to a level equal to or below the downward target.

In other words, the BTC price now oscillates between two psychological thresholds, and the outcome of this battle will decide the fate of crypto-alternatives in the coming weeks.

At the same time, anticipation around the next Fed meeting could reshuffle the cards. While a rate cut favors risky assets, uncertainty could paradoxically restore bitcoin’s status as a relative safe haven within the crypto market.

Evolution of bitcoin dominance since September 2024 – Source : The Block

Altcoins boosted by events, BTC aims even higher

For other analysts, the decline in dominance is not necessarily bad news. It signals a diversification of flows which, far from weakening bitcoin, could accompany it to new heights. CoinCodex forecasts even predict an ATH at $127,419 by December 2025, nearly 15% gains from current levels.

On the altcoins side, September looks busy. Token unlocks, hard forks and technical announcements (ONDO, CFX, IMX) promise short-term price moves. These catalysts attract speculators, especially as Ethereum has been outperforming BTC for a month.

But the real question remains whether demand will truly come from the spot market, or if it’s just a breath fueled by derivatives.

Some key figures to remember

• -7%: drop in bitcoin dominance in a few weeks;
• 53%: critical threshold that could trigger a new altseason;
• $127,419: BTC price target by December 2025;
• 3 major tokens (ONDO, CFX, IMX) unlocked in September.

Thus, investors face a battle of opportunities: seize the short-term dynamism of altcoins, or bet on bitcoin’s more stable foundation for the year-end.

The drop in BTC dominance does not signal its end. As long as it stays above $107,000, on-chain data shows a healthy trend . The current balance could therefore offer the best of both worlds: altcoin vitality for agile traders and bitcoin solidity for patient investors.