This Week's Preview: The Fed's Rate Cut "Starting Gun" Is Imminent, AI and Metaverse Narratives Stir Up Waves Again

Last week, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a “calm before the storm” amid a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish signals. Bitcoin’s price consolidated narrowly around the $115,000 level, with overall market sentiment shifting toward cautious optimism. Following weak non-farm payroll data in August and a moderate inflation report, expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle have reached their peak. In the absence of new catalysts, global capital is now entirely focused on this week’s imminent “starting gun”—the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its key interest rate decision, which will set the tone for global risk assets in the coming months.

From the macro “final judgment” to the industry’s “narrative resonance,” the main theme of the market this week is no longer just “listening to the Fed,” but rather a duet between macro liquidity and cutting-edge technology narratives.

Key Focus 1: “Judgment Day” in the Early Hours of Thursday—Federal Reserve Rate Decision

2:00 AM, September 18 (Thursday), GMT+8: The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision and policy statement

2:30 AM, September 18 (Thursday), GMT+8: Federal Reserve Chair Powell holds a press conference

This is undoubtedly the core pricing event for all global risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) this week. Currently, the market is almost 100% betting that the Fed will initiate the first rate cut of this cycle. However, the real focus of the game is no longer on “whether to cut rates,” but on the “magnitude of the cut” and Powell’s “rhetorical artistry” regarding the future path.

Three Major Market Scenarios:

1. Unexpectedly Dovish (Bullish Scenario): Rate cut of 50 basis points, or a 25 basis point cut with a clear signal of continued easing. Although the probability of a 50 basis point cut is currently less than 10%, if it happens, it will greatly boost market risk appetite and could push Bitcoin to break through recent resistance levels, starting a new round of gains. If Powell strongly hints at consecutive rate cuts in upcoming meetings during the press conference, it will be interpreted by the market as extremely bullish.
2. In Line with Expectations (Base Case Scenario): Rate cut of 25 basis points, with Powell maintaining a “data-dependent” neutral tone. This is the most likely scenario. Since the market has already fully anticipated this, the decision itself may not provide strong upward momentum. The market’s focus will shift entirely to Powell’s speech; any “hawkish” reservations (such as emphasizing sticky inflation or maintaining caution about the rate-cut outlook) could trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction, leading to a short-term pullback in the crypto market after the announcement.
3. Unexpectedly Hawkish (Bearish Scenario): Rate cut of 25 basis points, but Powell’s speech is unexpectedly tough. For example, he may emphasize that this rate cut is merely a “mid-cycle adjustment” rather than the start of an easing cycle. This would severely dampen market sentiment, cause the US Dollar Index to rebound, and put significant downward pressure on cryptocurrencies and other risk assets.

Key Focus 2: “Dual Narrative” Resonance—AI and Metaverse Industry Catalysts

As expectations for macro liquidity are about to be realized, two powerful industry narrative lines will also reach key milestones this week, potentially injecting independent momentum into specific crypto sectors.

• AI’s “National Team Moment” (Starting September 17): US President Trump will visit the UK with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CEO Altman, and other tech giants’ executives. The market widely expects the announcement of a multi-billion dollar investment in UK data centers during this trip. This “national-level” endorsement will greatly reinforce the consensus around AI as a core global productivity driver and is likely to directly ignite speculative enthusiasm for AI-related crypto tokens such as Render (RNDR), Fetch.ai (FET), SingularityNET (AGIX).
• Metaverse’s “Hardware Year One” (Starting September 18): Meta will hold its annual Connect conference, where it is expected to launch its first consumer-grade smart glasses and introduce a series of new software development kits (SDKs). This marks the metaverse’s transition from a purely software concept to a new era of hardware interaction with the real world. This event could serve as a major catalyst for metaverse and gaming infrastructure tokens such as Decentraland (MANA), The Sandbox (SAND).

Other Market Signals Worth Watching

• Beware of Potential Selling Pressure from “Unlock Waves”: In addition to macro and industry narratives, the microeconomic structure of some mainstream tokens this week also deserves close attention. Large-scale token unlocks typically mean an increase in circulating supply, which may create short-term selling pressure on token prices. Key unlocks to watch this week include:
• Arbitrum (ARB): September 16, 21:00 (UTC+8), unlocking approximately $47.89 million (accounting for 2.03% of circulating supply).
• Fasttoken (FTN): September 18, 8:00 (UTC+8), unlocking approximately $89.8 million (accounting for 2.08% of circulating supply).
• Velo (VELO): September 20, 8:00 (UTC+8), unlocking approximately $48.22 million (accounting for 13.63% of circulating supply).
• Sei (SEI): September 15, 20:00 (UTC+8), unlocking approximately $18.42 million (accounting for 1.18% of circulating supply). Among these, Velo’s unlock is relatively large, and as well-known public chains, ARB and SEI’s unlock dynamics are worth close attention from investors.
• Global Central Banks: “Ice and Fire”: This week, the Bank of Canada (expected to cut rates), the Bank of England (expected to hold rates), and the Bank of Japan (expected to hold rates) will also announce decisions. Synchronized easing by Canada and the Fed will reinforce signals of a global liquidity inflection point. Meanwhile, the UK’s “wait-and-see” stance may support the pound, indirectly putting pressure on the US Dollar Index, which is a potential positive for dollar-denominated crypto assets.
• China’s August Economic Data: China will release a series of economic data, including retail sales and industrial added value. As a major global economy, the strength of its recovery will affect global risk appetite and indirectly influence sentiment in the crypto market.

This Week’s Summary and Outlook

In summary, this week is a crucial intersection of macro, narrative, and tokenomics. The market may remain in a high-level consolidation before the Fed’s decision in the early hours of Thursday, with real volatility set to erupt from then on.

Investors need to pay attention not only to macro trends but also to micro risks from specific token unlocks. Will the Fed’s final stance open a new bull market prelude for risk assets, or will it end with a “sell the news” pause amid high expectations? At the same time, can the AI and metaverse industry narratives play their own brilliant symphony against the macro backdrop? All answers will be revealed intensively in the coming days.