Bitcoin’s Upcoming Step: The Struggle Around $118K May Determine Its Future

The latest movements in Bitcoin's price have drawn considerable interest from the market, as the cryptocurrency hovers near crucial technical thresholds that may indicate a significant breakout is on the horizon. In early September 2025,

(BTC) has been holding steady above $115,000, showing a strong rebound following a turbulent week with price fluctuations ranging from $124,500 down to $111,600. This volatility echoes the wider macroeconomic climate, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statements at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he hinted that interest rates could be lowered as early as September. These comments boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Both institutional and retail traders are focusing on the $117,500–$118,000 level, which serves as a significant resistance area. This region has historically limited Bitcoin’s rallies, and according to Coinglass data, more than $3 billion in short positions are concentrated near $117,800. Experts and market participants believe that a convincing move above $118,000 could trigger a short squeeze and potentially pave the way for a retest of the $120,000 mark. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to surpass this barrier, renewed selling may push prices back toward $110,000 or even $105,500, aligning with the 200-day moving average.

The recent upward move has led to substantial Bitcoin accumulation between $112,000 and $114,000, with over 120,000

purchased during this window, reflecting strategic buying activity. Yet, Glassnode data points out a key structural issue: the supply within the $110,000–$116,000 bracket is thin, forming an “air-gap” that makes reliable support levels scarce. This implies that, despite a short-term bullish outlook, the lack of strong long-term holder presence may hinder a sustained breakout.

Metrics tracking on-chain activity and network usage present a mixed picture, adding uncertainty to the forecast. While Bitcoin registered a notable $33.25 million spot net inflow on August 7—breaking a long period of outflows—the overall pattern has been erratic. Both transaction activity and network growth have swung dramatically, with recent readings dropping to 131K and 219K, respectively, hinting at waning user participation, which often signals upcoming price stagnation or declines.

Investor attitudes are also being shaped by trends in Bitcoin ETF flows, which have shown varied results. Since August 15, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows totaling $1.2 billion, whereas

ETFs have seen over $330 million in new investments, indicating a shift of capital toward alternative cryptocurrencies. This difference in fund flow highlights the growing competition for investor attention, especially in the wake of Powell’s comments.

In the coming days, Bitcoin’s direction will likely be determined by its ability to remain above $115,000 amid growing trading volume and steady buying interest. Should BTC hold this level, a push toward $118,000 and possibly higher could follow. However, if support falters, further selling could lead to a sharper decline. Analysts stress that for a breakout to be confirmed,

only a price rally but also increased user engagement and stronger on-chain activity will be critical.