ChainCatcher news, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that since September 26, BTC has started a rebound trend, which has been almost entirely driven by US-based funds. This situation is similar to May this year, when after BTC broke through $100,000, Asian funds began to gradually withdraw, while US funds continued to surge forward.
US investors are the most important participants and decision-makers in this cycle, and US funds have been the core driving force of the market most of the time. However, as BTC's market capitalization grows larger, sustained upward momentum requires the participation of other sources of capital. According to historical data, if Asian funds continue to be absent, once US funds are exhausted and decline, BTC and other major coins will gradually weaken.
Currently, US-based funds are still performing actively, with spot ETFs being an important reference factor. With continuous net inflows over the past two weeks, the spot exposure (buying demand) between ETFs and CME open interest has reached 29,670 BTC. This scale is on par with April and June 2025, and slightly lower than October 2024. From this perspective, US investor sentiment and net capital inflows have already met the preconditions to support another upward move in BTC price.
At present, the large-scale divergence between MVRV and UPUL has not yet been broken, so it cannot be considered the starting point of a new trend, but rather a continuation of the April market. In terms of price conditions, the lower support level of $121,000 remains the benchmark; as long as it is not breached, the upward expectation can temporarily be maintained.