Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Has Come to an End
- Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Over
- Trump's Pressure on the Fed Could Boost BTC
- Rising global liquidity favors assets like Bitcoin
BitMEX investor and co-founder Arthur Hayes, stated that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle no longer applies to the current market. In his article titled "Long Live the King," he argues that the combination of interest rate cuts, monetary expansion, and global political shifts has created an economic environment entirely different from previous cycles.
Hayes noted that, historically, Bitcoin would reach a significant peak a year after the halving and then face declines of up to 80%. However, in 2024, the cryptocurrency reached a new high even before the event—a behavior that, according to him, demonstrates a definitive break with the previous pattern.
"As this cycle approaches its fourth anniversary, many traders are trying to apply the historical pattern and predict the end of this bull market," he explained. "They follow this rule without understanding why it worked before—and without that understanding, they don't understand why it will stop working now."
The former CEO of BitMEX emphasized that the current macroeconomic context is crucial. He believes both the United States and China are promoting policies that favor global liquidity, which tends to strengthen Bitcoin and other risk assets.
"Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing," Hayes said. "They're making it clear that money will be cheaper and more abundant. That's why Bitcoin keeps rising, anticipating this highly likely future."
Hayes also linked this trend to the administration of current US President Donald Trump, who, in his second term, has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
"In the United States, President Trump wants to keep the economy buoyant," he noted. "He criticizes the Fed for overly restricting the money supply. Even with inflation above target, the Fed resumed rate cuts in September."
While some analysts still believe Bitcoin could repeat previous cycles, Hayes argues that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and global expansionary monetary policy have created a new market structure—one in which digital scarcity and liquidity coexist, forever altering the dynamics of BTC cycles.
