The Truth of the Crypto Market: Altcoin Season Will Not Return, Evolution Is the Only Way Out

Original Title: No Altseason for People Who Refuse to Evolve

Original Author: hitesh.eth
Translated by: Dingdang, Odaily

This article may make many people uncomfortable. Most people will quit halfway through because the truth is always uncomfortable. But I'm not here to comfort anyone; I'm here to shatter illusions.

If you are still waiting for an "altseason," you have already lost.

It has been almost three years since the last cycle bottom for bitcoin (around the $15,000 to $20,000 range).

Three years is a long time in the crypto market.

In these three years, those who stubbornly held onto their last cycle portfolios are still deeply in loss, and many have already been mentally destroyed.

Countless tokens have never recovered, narratives have died, hype has faded, and liquidity has dried up.

Most people’s portfolios have become a “graveyard of dreams.” Only a few tokens, such as Solana and BNB, have truly delivered outstanding performance. Ethereum has risen, but not enough to save those who entered at the top. DOT and MATIC, which were considered “faith tokens” in the last cycle, are still suffering losses. Game tokens have basically entered a “clinical death” state.

Those who believed in the “metaverse” and “GameFi” narratives can only watch their capital rot away bit by bit.

They are still “praying,” as if faith could save them.

But it won’t.

The Two Types of People in the Market Flood: Old Era Holders and the Rise of the New Era

In the past three years, the market has split into two completely different paths.

The first type are holders frozen in time. They believe without any basis that the market will eventually rebound and their coins will miraculously return to historical highs. They don’t rotate assets, don’t keep up with the times, don’t study new market narratives, and don’t learn on-chain skills. They just stubbornly hold onto worthless assets, waiting for a miracle. Worse, many keep their coins on centralized exchanges. When exchanges like WazirX are hacked or withdrawals are frozen, they complain on Twitter but still make no progress. Their only strategy is “hope.” But hope is not a strategy; it’s slow financial suicide in the crypto world.

The other path belongs to the new generation of investors who entered in the past two or three years. They have no nostalgia for old narratives and don’t care about your 2020 portfolio. Their only goal is to make money from the market. They enter through two paths—airdrop farming and meme coin trading. They switched to on-chain activities early and are willing to try new things. Some started from scratch and built up capital with their own hands. They are not lucky, but hungry. They learned how to get ahead, how to rotate, and how to exit faster. Although many gave back profits due to lack of exit strategies, at least they are truly participating in the market, unlike those timid spectators who dare not leave centralized exchanges.

In the past three years, we have witnessed wave after wave of narratives: meme craze, AI craze, meme+AI craze, a second meme craze, a second AI craze, a brief DeFi craze, buyback and burn craze, the ongoing privacy coin craze, ICM craze, AI Agent craze, and even the fleeting streamer coin craze. Market narratives have become shorter, with hypes often lasting only two weeks before fading.

The lazy complain that the market is manipulated, while the smart rotate flexibly and survive. This is not a market for “believers,” but an arena for survivors.

Market Fragmentation: No More “Unified Altseason”

Today, the market is highly fragmented. It is no longer a unified community, but split into countless “trenches.” People pick sides: Solana trench, BNB trench, Base trench, meme trench, AI trench, DeFi trench... Each trench has its own rhythm, insiders, leaders, information flow, and liquidity cycle. Players in the trenches know where liquidity is going. They understand a simple truth: The era of a single, all-encompassing altseason is gone.

Because liquidity is now split among different narratives, bridges, chains, and cultures. If you’re not in the trenches, you’ll always miss altseason, seeing only red candles and endless disappointment.

Retail investors sitting outside the trenches are still waiting for some “macro switch” to be flipped, thinking that will bring their “dead coins” back to new highs. They log into exchanges every day, staring at candlestick charts like addicts, shouting “I’ve had enough” every week, yet repeating the same cycle. They are the most stubborn group in the entire industry. They still post predictions of Link going to $1,000, DOT to $200, fantasizing that liquidity will return out of goodwill. They don’t realize that this market has no mercy and no memory. It doesn’t care who waits the longest; it only rewards those who adapt the fastest.

“Altseason” Has Already Happened—Just Not for You

Altseason has already happened, you just missed it. It appeared in fragmented forms: in the meme coin craze on Base, in the rotations on Solana, in the Ponzi mechanisms of airdrops, in the early AI narrative rallies, in the token burn craze... These opportunities were fleeting, while you stared at the long-dead 2021 candlestick charts. That was your choice; the market moved forward, but you stayed put.

You follow technical analysis (TA) streams that never really made money, use 50x leverage to gamble on tokens you don’t even understand, get liquidated, then add more, get liquidated again, and repeat.

You call it bad luck? No, it’s not a matter of luck, but of ability. Nothing will change until you face the truth. You’re not “unlucky,” you just refuse to learn.

Many people reject new opportunities because they are addicted to their own biases. When new narratives appear, they shout “scam” without even looking. When new narratives emerge, they ask “when airdrop” without reading the docs. When they see smart people rotating assets, they mock from the sidelines; when those people post six-figure profits, they regret it. You can comfort yourself by saying it’s insider trading, but the truth is simpler: You’re not being “played”—you’re being “outcompeted.”

Look at Zcash. This is one of the clearest trading opportunities of this cycle. The narrative is strong, the support is strong, and the community promotion is natural. Naval publicly discussed Zcash at around $80. Whether you like Naval or not, this signal cannot be ignored. When a respected voice combines with a strong narrative, plus daily promotion from “opinion leaders” like Mert, that’s not noise—it’s a clear momentum play endorsed by builders.

But most people missed it because they don’t research, don’t read, don’t understand the technology or adoption details, and just make superficial comparisons between Zcash and Monero. They are too lazy to try and simply dismiss the opportunity. Because not doing research is easier than admitting you’re lazy.

No effort, no conviction. Those who don’t learn don’t deserve gains. Most people lack the perseverance to stick with things. They dip in with small amounts, rotate without conviction, and follow one influencer after another like lost sheep. When real opportunities come, they buy at the top, then hold onto assets fantasizing about 100x returns predicted by someone’s tweet. That’s not a strategy; it’s financial suicide disguised as ambition.

The market always shouts out exaggerated targets, but that’s meaningless. They shout out flashy numbers just to suck up your liquidity. “Greed bait” is the oldest trick in this game. If you’re not mature enough to make your own exit plan, you’ll eventually give back everything you’ve earned—all of it.

This is an iron law. Those without discipline will always be destroyed by greed.

Ultimately, if you can’t keep your gains, you’ll lose everything. The market doesn’t take money from the weak—the weak willingly hand it over. Market makers don’t steal your money; they just wait for you to collapse on your own. Retail investors once owned bitcoin, now it’s taken over by institutions. Retail once had conviction, now all that’s left is memes, fantasies, and screenshots of profits that can no longer be realized.

This game isn’t about who is the smartest, but about—who can evolve. If you don’t learn, you’re decaying; if you don’t rotate, you’re rotting; if you don’t master on-chain skills, you’re already eliminated. You don’t need special talent or insider channels, but you must work hard. You need to read, track narratives, learn to exit, control your emotions, and act decisively—no hesitation, no begging, no waiting for permission.

Crypto isn’t hard; people make it complicated. Because they chase dopamine instead of discipline, crave hype instead of process, seek luck instead of learning, expect returns instead of research. They want shortcuts so badly that they never develop skills. That’s why most people remain broke in a market that creates wealth every cycle.

Successful people are not chosen by fate, nor are they lucky. They have no innate advantages. They just persist in learning every day while others are busy scrolling. They build systems while others chase noise. They act early while others argue. They exit cleanly while others pray for one more pump. They can survive every cycle because they adapt to every cycle.

If you’re still waiting for “altseason,” you’ve already lost. This game has already moved on. You either evolve or get eliminated. No one will come to save you. And no “new bull market” will magically fix your bad habits. Now, there’s only one rule left in this market: learn, or be left behind.