The
XRP
price has been showing signs of weakness, consistently forming "lower highs" as Bitcoin continues its upward trend, according to CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole. Since July, each
Bitcoin
rally has sparked a move in XRP, but these have failed to exceed previous highs, indicating diminishing buying strength. For example, XRP reached $3.10 at the end of September—still below its earlier September peak of $3.19—even as Bitcoin set a new all-time high at $126,000. This trend, along with XRP's difficulty staying above the important $2.65–$2.70 support range, suggests a possible breakdown and a further drop toward $2.00, according to
CoinDesk analysis
.
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The ongoing debate about whether XRP can surpass Bitcoin in market share remains intense, with experts pointing out both XRP's advantages and Bitcoin's established position. XRP's rapid, cost-effective cross-border payment system and its 2024 legal win against the SEC have boosted institutional interest, especially in Asia and Europe. Ripple's platform now processes billions in annual transactions, challenging SWIFT's market share. Still, Bitcoin's $1.5 trillion valuation far exceeds XRP's $196 billion, and its reputation as "digital gold" continues to appeal to risk-averse investors, according to
Analytics Insight
. Experts say that for XRP to overtake Bitcoin, its price would need to rise 15-fold, a challenge made tougher by Bitcoin's regulatory certainty and its energy-saving proof-of-stake system.
Recent global economic trends have further favored Bitcoin. When Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) dropped to 56.93% in late September—a 30% decline from its 2024 high—altcoins like XRP have historically surged. In previous cycles, such drops were followed by XRP rallies of over 1,000%. However, XRP's recent 500% increase since November 2024, though notable, hasn't yet sparked a full altcoin season. Analyst Dom observes that Bitcoin's current stability above $115,000 indicates that investors still prefer safer assets, but a further decline in BTC.D could revive altcoin interest, according to
The Currency Analytics
.
Regulatory changes remain a crucial factor. Ripple's ongoing legal battle with the SEC and the awaited approval of XRP spot ETFs could open the door to more institutional investment, but delays—like the recent U.S. government shutdown—have dampened enthusiasm.
Benzinga
points out that XRP's prospects depend on Ripple's success in expanding its on-demand liquidity (ODL) service, though the company's shift toward stablecoins might lessen XRP's importance. On the other hand, Ethereum's foundational role in stablecoins and DeFi gives it a broader advantage, with ETH burns adding deflationary pressure.
While XRP's growing institutional use and technical setup show promise, Bitcoin's lead seems secure for the time being.
Ethereum
, meanwhile, is considered a safer long-term investment due to its expansive ecosystem and deflationary features. Still, XRP could see significant gains if Ripple's legal issues resolve positively and ETF approvals proceed. Analysts such as Egrag Crypto estimate a 57% chance of XRP reaching new record highs by late 2025, provided it holds key support levels. For now, XRP's challenge to Bitcoin is hindered by both regulatory hurdles and market uncertainty, according to
Global Gurus
.