Crypto Tokens: A Hunting Game Disguised as "Belief"?

The crypto market does not reward followers, only those who can "see through the illusion."

Written by: hitesh.eth

Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News

The core of crypto tokens is belief. They are the purest financial instruments ever created, designed to extract hope from humans and convert it into liquidity. Token price fluctuations are not driven by utility, but by stories, by manipulation, by those who know how to weaponize "attention" to control the market. This is not a normal market, but a psychological battlefield. Most people are completely unaware that on this battlefield, they are the prey waiting to be slaughtered.

Price Discovery

No matter how dazzling the promotional narrative, all crypto tokens follow the same price discovery cycle. The cycle begins with the "0-1 stage": at this point, hype is absolutely dominant, and actual adoption is almost zero. Prices soar solely on market sentiment, communities form around fictional "future blueprints," and the momentum of promotional rhetoric completely overshadows reality. Then, a brutal correction arrives as expected—this weeds out weak-willed holders and exposes those investors who blindly entered based on a single "promise."

The deep downturn period is often a key turning point. Projects without real demand quietly disappear: they stop updating tweets, halt technical development, and gradually vanish from the market, with liquidity shifting to other projects. But a few tokens survive and enter the "1-10 stage"—at this point, hype cools down, and real adoption begins. These tokens experience a slow and uneventful growth period until genuine demand reignites a second wave of "belief." It is this second wave of belief that triggers a long and strong bull run. Only these tokens can survive cycle after cycle; most tokens never make it this far.

Hidden Truths

Looking ahead, tokens will be meaningless for most projects. Once private companies can directly tokenize equity and raise liquidity on-chain, the vast majority of crypto tokens will become worthless. Currently, only two areas of tokens have real value: decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and certain sectors of decentralized finance (DeFi)—because they drive participation and collaboration on the supply side. All other token-related operations are essentially fundraising schemes disguised as "innovation."

The existence of most tokens is essentially founders wanting to make quick money—but this era is about to end. Better fundraising methods are emerging, and regulation is on the way. However, meme coins and junk tokens will not disappear; instead, they will become more numerous—because gambling is human nature. The only change is that in the future, the line between "gambling" and "investing" will become clear: when you are gambling, you can no longer use "long-term investment" as a cover. You must make a choice: either admit you are gambling or focus on investing. Right now, everyone is pretending to be an investor, even those chasing memes and hype.

Psychological Traps

Crypto tokens are essentially "promissory data strings," designed to manipulate human behavior. The design of token supply unlock mechanisms is to control people's "hope"; the setting of vesting schedules is to slowly inject "belief" into the market. So-called "incentives" are not just financial temptations, but carefully designed emotional traps. The real "product" of these projects is not the token, but "belief." The goal of all promotional narratives is to target people's "reactive thinking"—the part of you driven by fear, anxiety, guilt, desire, and other emotions.

People are not buying tokens, but "the chance to escape present reality." This is why tokens spread faster than logic—because belief spreads faster than truth. This is also why "coordinated hype" exists: venture capitalists enter early, market makers manipulate price trends, exchanges time token listings, influencers stoke greed, whales quietly accumulate positions, and finally, retail investors enter at the end of the chain, becoming the "exit liquidity" (providing an exit for others). This is not a conspiracy, but the inherent process of market operation, the norm of the entire system.

The Demise of Tokens

What drives token growth is speculation, not utility. All tokens are fighting in the same "attention war"—tokens that cannot retain attention will eventually disappear. In this market, attention is more important than "actual adoption," more important than "returns," more important than "product usage." But most project teams do not understand this; they focus solely on price fluctuations and ignore user growth.

Some projects create a "false illusion of growth" through incentives, but once users care more about token price than the product itself, the game is over. Incentives should be "a bridge to promote real adoption," but they have become "a substitute for real demand." When a project loses control over token dynamics and becomes a "prisoner" of its own price chart, its core mission collapses: founders stop focusing on development and start going through the motions; the project's vision dies, and the token becomes a curse. For projects that "could have succeeded without a token," the token ultimately becomes their grave.

Exit Liquidity

If you don't know "whose tokens you're buying," then you are someone else's "exit liquidity" (bagholder). The price discovery process of tokens is essentially a "coordinated game" manipulated by insiders: venture capitalists, exchanges, market makers, investment syndicates, whales, and key influencers, all working together to control the market. When retail investors see a token's "popularity soaring," insiders have already built their positions, just waiting for retail to provide liquidity. The seed round is the stage where the greatest wealth is created, but retail investors never get to participate—the project completes fundraising at a very low valuation, but can reach a fully diluted valuation of several billions of dollars at launch.

Retail investors always think they are "early," but in reality, they are already late—their entry only provides an exit for those who entered at lower prices. To survive in this game, you must anticipate narrative trends in advance, enter before influencers start promoting, and build positions before liquidity incentives begin. If you wait until YouTube bloggers start recommending a token to buy, you've already lost. If you don't do your own research, it's not "investing"—you're just "borrowing someone else's conviction," and this borrowed conviction will ultimately leave you with heavy losses.

Future Divergence

The crypto space is splitting into two worlds: "regulated crypto" and "crypto anarchy." The former is controlled by governments, with compliant infrastructure, approved tokens, and comprehensive surveillance; the latter is primitive, brutal, and free—privacy-driven blockchains, true decentralization, and hands-on developers will survive in this world. Tokens were originally a symbol of "counterculture," but that culture has long since died. Crypto has betrayed its original intention and become "Wall Street on the blockchain." However, a "purge" is coming: tokens without real demand will disappear, and projects without a core mission will vanish.

Narratives without substance will die out; only tokens tied to "real adoption, real cash flow, and real goals" will survive, and the rest will disappear. You need to think clearly about why you are here—because tokens are like a mirror, exposing your greed, your impatience, your fantasies. Most people come here for "freedom," but get trapped in speculation; for "wealth," but lose themselves in greed; for "truth," but become addicted to lies. This market can't save you, narratives can't save you—what can save you is discipline and insight. The survival rule is simple: learn the rules, act before the crowd, never be the bagholder, know who you are, and then throw yourself into this "battle."

Conclusion

The crypto market does not reward followers, only those who can "see through the illusion." The crowd is always slow to act, always chasing hype, and always ends up as someone else's bagholder. Don't be part of the crowd: build your own process, create your own edge, cultivate your own patience. If you understand this game, you won't fear it—instead, you can use it to your advantage.

This "purge" will not destroy you; it will only create opportunities for you. The road ahead will not be easy: the market will test your conviction, your timing, your patience, your emotional control, and your ability to stick to the truth "when the crowd is drowned out by noise." Now is not the time to pray for a bull market, but the time to build your own "belief." Only one question remains: when the next cycle begins, will you be an "early entrant," or will you once again become the "exit liquidity"?