NAV Collapse Creates Rare Opportunity in Bitcoin Treasurys: 10x Research
Net Asset Values (NAVs) in digital asset treasuries (DATs) have collapsed, but this is not as bad as it sounds and can be viewed as an opportunity for savvy investors, according to 10x Research.
“The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” stated 10x Research analysts in a report shared with Cointelegraph on Friday.
“They conjured billions in paper wealth by issuing shares far above their real Bitcoin value — until the illusion vanished,” they continued.
In this “magic trick,” DATs essentially transferred wealth from retail investors who overpaid for shares into actual Bitcoin (BTC) for the company. Shareholders lost billions while executives accumulated real BTC, they said.
The researchers used Metaplanet, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury firm, as an example, as the company effectively transformed a market capitalization of $8 billion, supported by just $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings, into a $3.1 billion market cap backed by $3.3 billion in BTC.
Strategy’s similar situation
Retail investors paid two to seven times the actual Bitcoin value when buying these shares during the hype. Now those premiums have vanished, and many shareholders are underwater while companies converted that inflated capital into real Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin and DATs primed for explosive 2026: LONGITUDE
Michael Saylor’s Strategy experienced a similar “boom-and-bust cycle in its net asset value,” which has resulted in a slowdown in Bitcoin purchases, they noted.
“With NAVs now having fully round-tripped, retail investors have lost billions—and many likely lack the conviction to keep adding to their positions.”
New category of Bitcoin asset managers
The NAV normalization has created a rare entry point for smart investors. Companies now trading at or below NAV offer pure Bitcoin exposure with optionality on future alpha generation and upside from any trading profits.
The shakeout has also separated the real operators from marketing machines. The firms that survive this transition will be battle-tested, well-capitalized, and equipped to generate consistent returns, creating a new category of Bitcoin asset managers.
DATs that adapt now will “define the next bull market,” the researchers said before concluding:
“Bitcoin itself will continue to evolve, and Digital Asset Treasury firms with strong capital bases and trading-savvy management teams may still generate meaningful alpha.”
Strategy, Metaplanet stock sinks
Strategy stock (MSTR) gained 2% on Friday, ending the trading session at $289.87. However, it has fallen 39% since its all-time high closing price of $473.83 in November 2024, according to Google Finance.
Metaplanet shares (MTPLF) lost 6.5% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange yesterday in a fall to 402 yen ($2.67) and have tanked 79% since their mid-June peak of 1,895 yen ($12.58).
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