LUNA Rises 0.8% Daily as Recovery Continues
As of October 24, 2025, LUNA increased by 0.8% over the past day, reaching $0.1003. Over the last week, it gained 1.31%, but it has dropped 27.23% in the past month and is down 75.84% compared to a year ago.
LUNA’s long-term trend remains mixed. While the token has experienced a sharp 27% drop in the last month, it has managed a noticeable short-term recovery in the previous week. This pattern may indicate that traders are reacting to either improved confidence in the protocol’s fundamentals or a lack of significant negative news recently. Although the month-long decline points to a stronger bearish sentiment, the daily and weekly figures suggest a more complex, possibly short-lived, stabilization.
Recent technical analysis has centered on whether LUNA is forming a new support base or starting a new upward trend. Experts believe the asset may continue to trade within a narrow range for now, with resistance set above $0.105 and support just under $0.095. If LUNA manages to stay above $0.105, it could trigger algorithmic buying and potentially mark the beginning of a broader recovery.
Backtest Hypothesis
LUNA’s recent price action has sparked renewed interest in examining how it has historically responded to major events. However, an initial attempt at backtesting was unsuccessful due to a technical constraint: only one relevant event date (2022-05-12) was available, which was not enough for the analysis. The backtesting process requires at least two event dates to calculate variance and provide meaningful statistics, and having only one resulted in a “division-by-zero” error.
To overcome this, two alternative approaches are being considered. The first is to identify several significant dates tied to major LUNA price changes, such as 2022-05-12, 2022-06-08, and 2023-05-05, among others. This method, known as a multi-date event study, ensures there are at least two data points, allowing for a more robust analysis of how LUNA’s price typically reacts to important events in its history.
The second approach is a basic “buy-and-hold” back-test, which treats the price action on 2022-05-12 as a possible entry or exit point. This method avoids the need for multiple events by focusing on a trading strategy rather than event-driven analysis, measuring the total return from the event date to the present by simply holding the asset.
