BCH Jumps 2.48% as Annual Growth Surpasses This Month’s Decline
As of October 24, 2025,
Technical analysis currently points to mixed signals for BCH’s short-term outlook. Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have been moving lower, mirroring the recent monthly downturn. In contrast, the 10-day and 20-day averages are trending upward, which some analysts interpret as a possible sign of a short-term reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) now sits between 50 and 60, showing a transition from oversold conditions to a more neutral stance, which could support continued gains. Momentum indicators such as the MACD are converging, indicating the market may be consolidating ahead of its next significant move.
Recent price developments seem to signal increasing institutional involvement in BCH, as several on-chain analytics providers have reported a consistent rise in active wallet numbers and larger transaction volumes over the last month. Experts believe this momentum could persist as more institutional investors consider BCH as a scalable Layer 2 solution within the
Backtest Hypothesis
A recent event-driven backtest reviewed BCH’s behavior on trading days when the coin closed at least 5% higher than the day before. From January 24, 2022, to April 10, 2025, five such instances were identified. The analysis tracked the 30-day returns following each of these “event days” and discovered that the average cumulative excess return compared to the S&P 500 reached its highest point—between +7% and +8%—around days 19 to 27. The win rate, or the proportion of events resulting in positive excess returns, increased from 60% on the first day to 80% between days 4 and 30, indicating a greater chance of outperforming with a longer holding period.
Significant outperformance was noted on days 19 and 27, suggesting that sustained strength often appears about three to four weeks after a major upward move. Although short-term gains (1–3 days) following a surge were positive, they did not reach statistical significance, supporting the view that a longer holding period may be more beneficial for this approach. The backtest relied on closing prices and a 30-day event window, with events defined as daily increases of at least 5%.
