Dogecoin (DOGE) is at a pivotal point as the
meme
coin nears a technical "death cross," prompting analysts to caution that its value could drop by as much as 60%. The cryptocurrency has already declined 38% from its September high of $0.3066 to $0.1900, a slide worsened by fading momentum in the recently introduced
DOGE
ETF and a sharp decrease in futures open interest, as reported by
CoinMarketCap
. The death cross, which occurs when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average, is widely viewed as a bearish indicator that often signals extended declines, causing concern among investors.
The DOGE ETF, which was initially expected to spark greater institutional involvement, has lost momentum as inflows have slowed considerably. This trend mirrors the broader weakness in the crypto sector, with
Bitcoin
(BTC) and
Ethereum
(ETH) both experiencing declines amid ongoing macroeconomic challenges, according to
Benzinga
. At the same time, Dogecoin’s price has been confined within a rising wedge formation, a classic pattern that often precedes breakdowns, as highlighted by CoinMarketCap.
Despite negative technical signals, supporters point to new potential drivers. The
Dogecoin
Foundation has revealed plans to convert its treasury into a publicly listed company, aiming to boost mainstream acceptance, according to
Benzinga
. In a separate move, House of Doge, the coin’s business division, secured a controlling interest in the Italian football club U.S. Triestina Calcio 1918, with intentions to introduce crypto payments for tickets and merchandise, as reported by
Cryptopolitan
. Advocates believe such collaborations could enhance real-world adoption and raise the coin’s profile.
Elon Musk, whose remarks have frequently swayed Dogecoin’s price, remains an unpredictable factor. The Tesla chief executive recently criticized proxy advisory firms over his $1 trillion pay package, labeling them "corporate terrorists" during an earnings call, according to
ScanX
. While Musk’s attention to Tesla and SpaceX has drawn scrutiny, his latest blockchain activities—including SpaceX’s $133 million Bitcoin transfer, as noted by
InvestorEmpires
—have renewed speculation about his broader cryptocurrency plans. Experts remain split on whether Musk’s support can counteract the structural challenges facing DOGE.
Technical analysis points to a possible "steady and composed" rebound, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing oversold levels, according to Benzinga. Still, reaching $0.25 will be difficult without improved sentiment and a return of strong ETF inflows. The determination of the Dogecoin community, together with Musk’s unpredictable impact, will likely decide if the coin can avoid a major downturn or if it will serve as a warning in the turbulent crypto landscape.
