Fed Rate Reductions Spark Refinance Boom: Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Point in a Year
Mortgage rates across the United States have dropped to their lowest point in more than a year, leading to a notable increase in refinancing. As of October 24, 2025, Freddie Mac reported the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.19%, which is 35 basis points lower than the same time last year. The 15-year fixed rate also fell to 5.44%, signaling a general decline in borrowing costs. "This week, mortgage rates continued their downward trend, reaching their lowest in over a year," stated Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. This reduction has resulted in refinancing making up over half of all mortgage transactions for the past six weeks, with Zillow indicating the 30-year fixed refinancing rate at 6.24%, according to
This decrease in rates comes after several Federal Reserve rate reductions and a slowdown in inflation, both of which have lessened pressure on the housing sector. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note—a key reference for mortgage rates—dipped to 3.996% from 3.989%. Meanwhile, economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) have sent mixed signals. Rick Sharga, CEO and president of CJ Patrick Company, commented that "if the U.S. economy slows further and the labor market weakens, the Fed may be compelled to cut rates more aggressively, which could drive mortgage rates even lower as the year ends," according to The Mortgage Reports.
SJO Daily.>The effects of these lower rates are already apparent in the real estate market. Existing home sales increased by 1.5% in September, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in September was 6.35%, down from 6.59% in August, which has encouraged more buyers to enter the market. Housing inventory reached its highest level in five years, with 1.55 million homes listed for sale. However, prices remain high, with the median sale price rising to $415,200—a 2.1% increase from the previous year, as reported by
Both Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have updated their projections to reflect these changes. Fannie Mae now anticipates the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will be 6.3% by the end of 2025 and fall to 5.9% by late 2026. The MBA expects rates to hover around 6.4% through 2026. Fannie Mae has also raised its forecast for home sales, predicting 4.74 million sales in 2025 and 5.16 million in 2026. On the other hand, JPMorgan strategists warn that the Fed could halt rate cuts after December 2025 to evaluate the economic effects of Trump’s policies, introducing more uncertainty to the outlook for mortgage rates, according to a Moomoo post.
Industry experts recommend that both homebuyers and those looking to refinance proceed carefully in this unpredictable market. With expectations that the Fed will reduce rates again in November and December, mortgage rates may drop further, but uncertainties persist. "For borrowers with excellent credit and clear plans, locking in a rate now could be wise," advised Darren Tooley, a senior loan officer. Still, ongoing fluctuations—driven by inflation, employment data, and global events—mean borrowers should remain vigilant. At present, the housing market is in a period of transition, balancing improved affordability with ongoing risks.
