Are the last two months of this year the best for the market? Should we rush in or cash out now?

Chainfeeds Guide:

If the four-year cycle theory is dead, how much further can bitcoin rise in this round?

Source:

Author:

BlockBeats

Opinion:

BlockBeats: Over the past two months, the word "cautious" has almost become the main theme of the crypto market, especially after the massive crash on October 11. As the impact of this crash gradually fades, market sentiment does not seem to have deteriorated further; instead, new hope has emerged. Starting from late October, some bullish signals have gradually appeared: net inflows have turned positive, a batch of altcoin ETFs have been approved, and expectations for interest rate cuts have heated up. The most impressive data in October came from ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing the outflow trend of $1.23 billion in September. Assets under management have reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of bitcoin's total market capitalization. Looking at the week from October 20 to 27 alone, $446 million in new funds flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $324 million, and its holdings have now exceeded 800,000 BTC. For the traditional financial market, ETF inflows are the most direct bullish indicator—it is more honest than social media hype and more real than candlestick charts. More importantly, this round of gains truly carries an "institutional flavor." Morgan Stanley has opened BTC and ETH allocations to all wealth management clients; JPMorgan now allows institutional clients to use bitcoin as loan collateral; according to the latest data, the average institutional allocation to crypto assets has risen to 5%, a record high. Moreover, 85% of institutions say they have already allocated or plan to allocate crypto assets. Although compared to bitcoin spot ETFs, ethereum ETFs seem somewhat lackluster. In October, there was a cumulative net outflow of $555 million, the first consecutive net outflow since April this year, mainly from Fidelity and BlackRock's ETH funds. But this also seems to be a new signal, indicating that funds are rotating, shifting from ETH to BTC and SOL, which have greater upside potential, or perhaps preparing for new ETFs. On October 28, the first batch of US altcoin ETFs officially launched, covering Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale launched SOL ETFs, and Canary Capital's LTC and HBAR ETFs were also approved for trading on Nasdaq. In addition to ETFs, another factor changing the market comes from the much-discussed macro level. On October 29, there was a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market seems to have priced in this expectation in advance, the US dollar index weakened, risk assets collectively strengthened, and bitcoin broke through $114,900 accordingly. In a traditional market that generally lacks imagination for 2025, crypto has become the place "where stories are still being told." More interestingly, this round of bullishness comes not only from the market but also from policy. On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig as CFTC chairman, and this former crypto lawyer has always been friendly toward the industry; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to conduct in-kind redemptions, greatly simplifying operations. On the topic of "regulatory friendliness," the US market is not just loosening up, but opening the door wide. The government is no longer suppressing innovation, but is trying to let the crypto industry "exist in compliance." On-chain data is simultaneously confirming all of this.