Solana has climbed past $204, fueled by increasing institutional interest and positive on-chain sentiment, though mixed signals point to the possibility of a retracement that could challenge important support zones. The digital asset, which has advanced more than 6% over the last week, finds itself at a crossroads as strong fundamentals clash with bearish technical patterns, creating a crucial juncture for market participants.
Recent figures show strong appetite for Solana’s ecosystem. The Total Value Locked (TVL) on
 Western Union’s upcoming USDPT stablecoin, which is scheduled to launch on Solana’s network in early 2026, further highlights the blockchain’s appeal to institutions, according to a
From a technical perspective, Solana’s price has found a base near a rising trendline, with bulls targeting $230 if the asset can close above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average ($202.88). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 points to ongoing bullish momentum, while Coinglass data reveals a long-to-short ratio of 1.07—the highest in a month—signaling increased speculative activity.
Yet, bearish signals are becoming more pronounced. Blockchain analytics indicate that long-term holders are reducing their positions, with Glassnode’s HODL Waves showing a drop in wallets holding SOL for 1–2 years from 20.33% to 18.48% this month, according to a
The conflicting market signals mirror broader uncertainty. DeepSeek AI forecasts a possible rally to $1,200 by the end of the month, citing increased ETF speculation and a robust infrastructure ready for adoption in a
With the Federal Reserve’s next policy announcement approaching, Solana’s future path will depend on the balance between institutional inflows and ongoing retail participation. A 3% dip could challenge the resolve of committed holders, but the network’s growing ecosystem—including Western Union’s USDPT and anticipated ETF approvals—positions Solana as a significant force in the evolving cryptocurrency sector.