DOGE rises 0.18% as short-term price swings intensify during ongoing long-term downtrend
As of November 2, 2025,
Despite the recent daily gain, DOGE’s short-term price movement remains unpredictable. The cryptocurrency has dropped 3.06% in the last seven days, indicating persistent bearish sentiment that has lingered since mid-October. This short-term dip stands in contrast to the 0.68% monthly growth, suggesting that bullish traders are still working to keep the price within a certain range. The differing short- and long-term trends underscore the ongoing battle between those expecting a rebound and those bracing for a further downturn.
Over the past year, DOGE has experienced a significant downtrend, losing 40.6% from its highest point. This extended decline puts the asset under continued pressure, especially as broader economic and industry-specific challenges continue to impact its value. The recent weekly drop has heightened worries that DOGE may find it difficult to regain strong upward momentum soon.
Experts believe DOGE must stay above $0.18 to prevent additional losses. If this level is tested again, a short-term bounce could occur if buyers step in. On the other hand, if DOGE consistently falls below $0.18, the year-long decline could accelerate, possibly driving the price toward lower support zones.
Backtest Hypothesis
A systematic backtest can be constructed by applying clear technical criteria to assess the potential of a breakout approach for DOGE. This method focuses on pinpointing a support level and maintaining the position until a predetermined resistance is reached.
To ensure the strategy can be reliably replicated, the following parameters must be clearly specified:
Support/Resistance Definition:
A widely used and effective method is the Donchian Channel. Here, the lowest price over N days sets the support, while the highest price over the same period marks the resistance. A 20-day look-back window is commonly chosen for its balance between sensitivity and noise reduction in backtesting.Breakout Trigger:
In this framework, a breakout is identified by an “upward cross”, where the closing price moves above the support, indicating a momentum shift. This approach helps filter out false signals and ensures the breakout is genuine rather than a brief fluctuation.Exit Rule:
The trade is exited when the closing price surpasses the resistance level. This offers a straightforward and objective exit aligned with the strategy’s goal of capturing gains from a breakout to a set target.Price Series:
To streamline execution and minimize assumptions about latency, daily closing prices are used for both entries and exits. This reflects actual trading conditions, where most positions are closed at the end of the trading day.Risk Controls:
This basic version of the strategy does not include specific stop-loss or take-profit mechanisms. Such measures could be incorporated in more advanced versions to better manage risk, particularly given DOGE’s volatility.
With these rules in place, the backtest can produce a series of signals covering the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-01, encompassing DOGE’s price movements over the last three years. The generated trade signals will help assess how this breakout strategy would have performed historically, providing perspective on its possible effectiveness in real-world trading.
