Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has intensified as large investors and institutions maneuver through turbulent conditions, with prices challenging major support levels ahead of a significant options expiration. A wallet linked to early adopter Owen Gunden, which holds more than 10,000
BTC
, recently moved 2,587.6 BTC—valued at $290 million—to Kraken, indicating profit-taking as Bitcoin retreated from its October peak, according to
a Yahoo Finance report
. This sale, accounting for 25.9% of Gunden’s total BTC, has added to the selling momentum as Bitcoin’s price fell to $108,000 before recovering to $110,000. The drop resulted in over $831 million in liquidations, including $665 million from long positions, highlighting increased market vulnerability, Yahoo noted.
Activity from long-term holders (LTHs) has further fueled market anxiety. In the past month, LTHs have sold 325,600 BTC—the largest monthly reduction since July 2025, according to
a Coinotag analysis
. This suggests waning bullish sentiment despite Bitcoin maintaining over $100,000 for 128 consecutive days. On-chain data reveals more accumulation by short-term holders, but overall outflows have caused a 3% price decline, challenging the $110,000 realized price for coins held 3–6 months, Coinotag reported. Meanwhile, Binance’s
Bitcoin
Scarcity Index has reached its highest point in several months, indicating ongoing accumulation by whales and major investors, according to Yahoo.
Market turbulence has coincided with heightened derivatives activity. With $13 billion in options contracts expiring on October 31, dealers are exposed to negative gamma at crucial strike prices ($100,000 and $111,000), suggesting the potential for increased volatility as market makers adjust their hedges, according to
a CoinDesk report
. Experts caution that gamma exposure near expiry could intensify price swings, especially if Bitcoin falls below $110,000, which could prompt more selling from holders in the 6–12 month range, Coinotag warned.
Retail investors have become increasingly influential in Bitcoin’s price movements, with smaller trade sizes and negative Futures Taker CVD data confirming their growing role, according to
an AMBCrypto analysis
. Exchange deposits have increased, suggesting more coins are being prepared for sale, while Futures Netflow has dropped 135% to -$334.6 million, reflecting a bearish outlook, AMBCrypto noted. Nevertheless, spot trading volumes have climbed, pointing to healthier participation as traders shy away from leverage after October’s deleveraging, Coinotag observed.
Institutional appetite remains muted. On October 29, ETFs saw $471 million in outflows, reversing earlier gains, as profit-taking and risk aversion took hold, Yahoo reported. However, Bitcoin’s realized cap increased by $8 billion to $1.1 trillion, driven by treasury entities and ETFs, though analysts such as Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant believe a full recovery will require renewed institutional inflows, according to
a Cointelegraph report
.
Amid the current uncertainty, Grok AI’s bold forecast of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end, as detailed in
a CryptoNews article
, has stirred discussion. The AI model points to institutional adoption, decreasing supply, and Bitcoin’s status as a global store of value as primary factors. While optimistic, this outlook contrasts with present on-chain trends showing consolidation, where retail activity and caution among whales suggest Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $111,000 and $115,000, AMBCrypto argued. A move above $115,000 could revive institutional interest, while a drop below $110,000 could see support tested at $93,300, Coinotag warned.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement is seen as a key event. If holders continue to sell before the FOMC meeting, it may reflect profit-taking amid broader economic uncertainty. On the other hand, maintaining levels above $110,000 could attract institutional investors seeking buying opportunities during pullbacks, Coinotag concluded.