AAVE +5.51% Surges on $50M Buyback and $35B TVL, With Technical Analysis Indicating $150–$160 as Support

On November 4, 2025,

climbed 5.51% over the past 24 hours, reaching $196.04. However, it has declined by 13.13% in the last week and 35.74% over the previous year. Despite these declines, the token’s fundamentals remain robust. The Aave DAO recently introduced an annual buyback program worth $50 million, financed by profits generated from the protocol. This move highlights Aave’s dedication to rewarding its token holders and reinforcing its ecosystem. In the last month alone, Aave brought in $98.3 million in fees and $12.6 million in protocol revenue, while its total value locked (TVL) stands at $35 billion.

The combination of the buyback initiative, steady cash flow, and substantial TVL reflects confidence in Aave’s enduring stability and growth prospects. These strong financial figures set Aave apart from more speculative projects and contribute to a positive outlook for AAVE in 2025.

Technical analysis further supports the possibility of a rebound for Aave. The primary support zone is now between $150 and $160, which coincides with a long-term upward trendline established since 2023. Experts believe that if this support holds, Aave could reverse course and target $240, with the potential to reach $341 in the short term. Should the price break above $341, a rally toward the $446–$538 range by the end of the year could follow. This technical pattern is seen as a healthy correction rather than a sign of weakness, especially given the overall volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the technical scenario, a backtest can be designed under the premise that Aave will rebound from the $150–$160 support area. The backtest would use a systematic approach: initiate a long position when the price closes within 2% of the latest 50-day low and is confirmed by a higher close the next day. The exit strategy would be to close the position at the first close at or above $341, or, if that price is not reached, to exit any open trades by the end date of November 4, 2025. This methodology demonstrates a disciplined strategy to capture potential gains from a clearly defined technical level.