Economists raise U.S. economic growth forecast for next year, expect the Federal Reserve to slow down rate cuts

Jinse Finance reported that a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) shows that the U.S. economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, but job creation is expected to remain sluggish. The survey, conducted from November 3 to 11, covered 42 professional forecasters. The median expectation for economic growth in 2026 is 2%, higher than the 1.8% in the previous survey in October. According to Reuters, this stands in sharp contrast to the 1.3% growth forecast in the June survey. The respondents’ median forecast also shows that this year’s inflation rate is expected to end at 2.9% (slightly lower than the 3% predicted in October), and will only fall slightly to 2.6% in 2026. Economists attribute a significant portion of inflation to tariffs. Meanwhile, economists expect job growth to remain weak, with an average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls projected at 58,000, lower than the 60,000 in the October survey. They also predict that the average monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls in 2026 will be 64,000, down from the 75,000 forecast in the October survey. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% at the beginning of 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year. Regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, a 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December, with only another 50 basis points cut in 2026, bringing the policy rate closer to a neutral level. (Golden Ten Data)