Monad's MON token has climbed above $0.046, representing an increase of over 80% from its previous price of $0.025, even as the wider crypto market struggles. This surge, fueled by strong on-chain engagement and a consistent base of holders, has led to both enthusiasm and caution among market observers, who point to underlying structural dynamics and potential risks ahead.
The token's rapid ascent came after its mainnet went live on November 24, with initial figures showing 3.7 million transactions, 153,000 unique active wallets, and a total value locked (TVL) of $90 million.
Nansen data indicates
, these statistics highlight ongoing short-term momentum. The first wave of liquidity originated from a 4.73 billion MON airdrop distributed to 289,000 wallets.
The outcome was further highlighted
by reaching 78.4% of its fundraising target, with $147.1 million secured as of November 20. The initial distribution unlocked 7.5% of the total token supply at a price of $0.025
USDC
, resulting in a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $25 billion. Still, experts caution that the token faces significant challenges ahead.
Elevated FDV and future token unlocks
— with more than half of the tokens locked until 2029 — could lead to increased selling pressure in the medium term, potentially curbing or reversing recent gains.
Forecasts for the price are mixed
. In the near future, analysts warn that MON might dip below $0.02, possibly revisiting the $0.01 level if selling accelerates. On the other hand,
others anticipate a "moderate" scenario
with prices between $0.035 and $0.050, assuming a smooth mainnet launch and steady dApp growth. Longer-term projections are more optimistic, with some models forecasting $0.10 to $0.25 by 2027 if adoption picks up.
Meanwhile, the overall crypto market continues to face headwinds.
Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000
, and total market value has decreased by over $1 trillion since October. These broader conditions add uncertainty to MON's outlook, as macroeconomic risks may reduce appetite for speculative assets.
Despite these obstacles, Monad's EVM-compatible architecture and fair token allocation make it a notable player among Layer-1 blockchains. The project's commitment to decentralization — with team and investor tokens locked until 2029 — further sets it apart. However, the token's long-term prospects will largely depend on developer engagement and user growth, which have yet to be proven at scale.
