Bitcoin seems poised to enter a bear market after forming a "death cross," a technical signal often associated with extended downturns. On November 16, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of
Bitcoin
(BTC)
dipped beneath its 200-day SMA
for the first time since January 2024, signaling a shift toward bearish sentiment. This pattern, which also appeared in 2014, 2018, and 2022, preceded declines of 64%-77% each time. The price
dropped to its lowest point in six months
at $80,500, breaking through major support and ending the broader upward trend.
Wider market weakness intensified the technical breakdown.
Bitcoin finished below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level crypto analyst Rekt Capital had highlighted as vital for sustaining bullish momentum. "When the macro trend reverses, bullish structures are lost," Rekt Capital commented on X,
pointing to the failure
of
BTC
to recover the EMA despite a short-lived rally to $87,000. At the same time, on-chain figures showed $800 million in realized losses among short-term investors,
while the Fear & Greed Index slid to 12
, indicating deep market pessimism.
Broader economic factors added to the selling pressure. The Federal Reserve's unclear position on rate reductions—
currently estimating a 71% probability
of a December cut—has kept liquidity tight, dragging Bitcoin and stocks lower. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes cautioned that BTC could fall to $80,000–$85,000 if Treasury yields near 5% and global markets correct by 10–20%. He described Bitcoin as a "barometer for fiat liquidity,"
expecting a turnaround only if
policymakers step in to support markets.
Institutional investors have also grown more cautious. November saw ETF outflows surpass $3.5 billion, with BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity reducing their stakes in MicroStrategy (MSTR), a major Bitcoin proxy. MSTR's Bitcoin holdings fell from $36.3 billion to $30.9 billion in Q3 2025 as funds hedged against crypto weakness
based on available data
. Meanwhile, exchange statistics revealed that put options at Deribit
climbed to $2 billion
in open interest at the $80K strike, marking the most bearish stance since early 2022.
Despite negative technical signals, some analysts remain cautiously hopeful. Crypto commentator Peter Anthony argued that every rebound is being dismissed as a "dead cat bounce," but he foresees a possible surge to $100K–$110K as short-term liquidations ease. "The dead cat bounce will be deceptive," he posted on X,
indicating that many sellers
who took losses in the recent downturn may wait before reentering. Likewise,
K33 Research observed
that Bitcoin's underperformance relative to the Nasdaq has reached 70%, the highest since July 2024, but called the current price a "compelling long-term buy" for patient investors.
The next moves depend on critical price levels. Immediate support lies at $82,000–$84,000, and a further drop could open the way to $74,000, the low from April 2025
according to recent analysis
. Resistance is found at $92,000–$94,000 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and the 200-day MA at $106,000, which will challenge the market's strength. Citadel Securities' $200 million investment in Kraken and BlackRock's participation in Bitcoin ETFs indicate that institutional interest persists, though short-term volatility is expected
as market analysts suggest
.
Amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and technical weakness, Bitcoin's direction remains unclear. While a rally to $100K–$110K is possible, experts caution that a lasting recovery will depend on the Federal Reserve shifting to easier policy and a return of risk appetite. For now, BTC is considered a "Hold" for long-term investors,
with accumulation recommended below $80K
.
