In early November 2025, Ethereum (ETH) climbed past the $3,000 mark, representing a significant milestone for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. Both technical signals and on-chain metrics point to the possibility of additional upward movement. This price level has become a focal point for traders and analysts alike, serving as both a psychological and technical pivot. If ETH can maintain momentum above $3,000, it may pave the way for a rally toward $3,400, but repeated rejections could lead to a sharper pullback
based on technical analysis
.
Technical analysis underscores the delicate situation for Ethereum. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is testing a downward trendline that has capped gains throughout the month, while the RSI is showing minor bullish divergences. The daily chart reveals
ETH
is still trading above a long-term rising trendline that has held since the start of 2025, though the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,514 remains a challenging target.
Closing strongly above $3,000 with significant trading volume
is crucial to shift sentiment, as previous breakouts lacking liquidity have not held.
On-chain data presents a mixed picture. According to Glassnode, active
Ethereum
addresses are rebounding—a metric that often leads price movements. Market capitalization has improved, narrowing its decline from 44% to 37% below its all-time high,
indicating reduced selling activity
. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.29,
a level that has historically marked accumulation periods
before major price surges.
Institutional sentiment is also evolving. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw $92.28 million in inflows on November 24,
breaking a 10-day streak of outflows
, with BlackRock’s ETHA fund contributing $88.22 million. This stands in contrast to the $1.94 billion in outflows from broader crypto funds the previous week, although Ethereum ETFs experienced $589 million in outflows,
which were later partially offset
.
Valuation models point to considerable upside. Simon Kim’s Hashed dashboard values Ethereum at $4,747, suggesting it is currently undervalued by 57%. Models based on Metcalfe’s Law estimate a fair value of $9,583, while discounted cash flow analysis using staking returns targets $9,067
based on technical analysis
. These projections are consistent with historical periods of consolidation that often precede sharp upward moves.
Nonetheless, there are ongoing obstacles. The creation of new Ethereum addresses has stalled,
restricting the influx of new capital
needed to support a sustained breakout. Additionally, Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) continues to accumulate ETH aggressively despite being down 50% on paper,
wagering on staking returns
and greater institutional involvement.
Looking forward, Ethereum’s next moves depend on its ability to firmly reclaim the $3,000 level. A decisive breakout could set sights on $3,120 and then $3,400, while a drop below $2,850 could see a retest of $2,700.
The upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3 and possible interest rate cuts by the Fed
could act as catalysts. For now, the market is in a consolidation phase, with bulls remaining cautiously hopeful and bears preparing for continued volatility.
