Bitcoin has fallen more than 22 % in one month, casting doubt on its momentum. Yet, behind this pullback, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. While markets are restless, institutional and retail investors watch four key factors likely to revive the bullish trend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension in derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.
While the flagship asset breaks above $86,000 despite a strong dollar , Bitcoin’s return beyond $112,000 could primarily rely on global inflationary dynamics and possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy.
A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset has resumed its upward trajectory after testing a technical support at 110.50.
Four factors could give Bitcoin fresh momentum. These levers are macroeconomic, technical, and structural alike :
These signals, though still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.
Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a decisive role in price dynamics.
One major uncertainty concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most followed indices by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation among investors on the opportunity to exclude from its indices some companies heavily exposed to Bitcoin, notably Strategy (MSTR).
This decision , expected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion of passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, reacted by stating: “Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly listed company with $500 million in software activity and a unique cash strategy”.
Meanwhile, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of trader confidence. Thus, put options on BTC currently trade with a 10 % premium compared to equivalent call options.
This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. A easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5 % or less would be necessary to consider a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion of BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could provoke significant volatility or serve as a catalyst for a new accumulation phase.
The Bitcoin price oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. While signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the solidity of a potential rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains warranted across the market.