The XRP market is undergoing a significant transformation as spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) debut in the United States. This development has sparked a surge in institutional interest and is altering the future outlook for the cryptocurrency. Recent reports indicate that major investors, often referred to as whales, have discreetly acquired $7.7 billion worth of XRP over the past three months—a trend that has historically preceded notable price shifts. The combination of this accumulation and the introduction of several XRP ETFs has fueled speculation about a potential price rally.
The regulatory environment changed dramatically in November 2025 when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Form 8-A, allowing Bitwise and 21Shares to introduce their spot XRP ETFs. These new products join seven existing ETFs, providing investors with a regulated way to gain exposure to XRP without directly holding the token. Bitwise’s ETF, which charges a 0.34% management fee, and 21Shares’ TOXR fund have quickly attracted $168 million and $150 million in assets under management, respectively, within just a few days of their launch. This rapid uptake highlights increasing institutional confidence, especially as the SEC has expedited its approval process for crypto ETFs following the government’s reopening.
The influx of capital into ETFs is already reducing the available supply of XRP. Analyst Chad Steingraber, a well-known figure in the XRP community, has developed models suggesting that ETFs could absorb nearly 3 billion XRP annually at current price levels. According to his analysis, price increases are necessary to prevent the rapid depletion of supply. For example, if XRP were to reach $22.5 per token—a tenfold increase—annual demand would decrease to 1.49 billion units. Steingraber’s research supports the idea that ETF-driven demand is a lasting structural factor rather than a temporary trend.
Examining XRP’s total market capitalization alongside ETF inflows over time illustrates the growing demand and supports Steingraber’s projections. Recent market activity further underscores this shift: XRP’s 24-hour trading volume jumped by 26% to $6.12 billion as ETF inflows hit $85 million in their first week. Additionally, large transfers totaling $106.7 million into exchanges and newly created wallets point to ongoing whale accumulation, contributing to a bullish market sentiment. The price of XRP has remained close to $2, a key support level from the 2021 bull run, and some analysts believe a breakout could spark a dramatic surge to new record highs.
Institutional adoption is also enhancing XRP’s practical use cases. Small and medium-sized businesses in Europe are beginning to utilize XRP for international payments, taking advantage of its cost-effective infrastructure. In Asia, fintech companies are incorporating XRP into payroll systems, benefiting from its speed and regulatory transparency. Nevertheless, concerns about potential market manipulation persist, as a small group of whales hold substantial XRP reserves, which could impact ETF valuations.
The XRP ETF landscape is expected to grow further. Upcoming launches from Franklin Templeton and Grayscale could bring in an additional $150 million in assets within days, and there is speculation that BlackRock and VanEck may soon enter the market as well. Steingraber’s models indicate that if 15 ETFs collectively absorb 150 million XRP daily, the token’s price could soar to $220 within two years. While these forecasts are speculative, they reflect a strong belief among institutional investors in XRP’s potential as the crypto sector matures.
As the era of XRP ETFs unfolds, the cryptocurrency’s direction will depend heavily on regulatory decisions and broader economic trends. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies and the SEC’s vigilance regarding market manipulation will be crucial in determining XRP’s trajectory. For now, the intersection of institutional demand, regulatory progress, and significant whale activity suggests a promising outlook for XRP, potentially redefining its place in the evolving digital asset landscape.