Bitcoin STH Loss Transfers Fall 80% From Peak – What Comes Next?

Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $90,000 level after days of intense volatility, but upward momentum remains limited as the market continues to battle uncertainty and fear. While bulls have regained some ground, selling pressure is still dominating sentiment, and speculation about the start of a new bear market continues to grow. Many analysts warn that the recent bounce may not be enough to shift the broader trend unless stronger demand returns.

According to fresh data from Darkfost, short-term stress among investors has eased slightly. The amount of BTC sent to exchanges at a loss has dropped sharply, now sitting around 11,600 BTC—significantly lower than the extreme 67,000 BTC capitulation spike recorded on November 22nd. This decline suggests that panic-driven selling may be cooling off, giving the market a temporary moment of stabilization.

However, despite this improvement, Bitcoin still faces strong headwinds. Investors remain cautious, liquidity conditions are tight, and macro uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets. For now, BTC must hold above the $90K region and show sustained strength to avoid renewed downside pressure. The coming sessions may determine whether this rebound marks the start of recovery—or just a pause before another leg lower.

Short-Term Holders Face a Critical Decision Point

Darkfost adds that the amount of BTC in profit being sent to exchanges by short-term holders remains relatively low at around 9,500 BTC. However, a slight increase has appeared as Bitcoin climbed back above $90K, showing that some STHs have begun testing the market to secure small gains or reduce their exposure.

This subtle shift highlights a growing tension among recent buyers, who must choose between waiting for a full return to break even or selling now to minimize further losses.

This situation creates a delicate environment. Even though selling pressure has eased, STHs remain highly sensitive to small price movements, and their behavior often dictates short-term market direction. The past few days have been unusually calm compared to the violent capitulation seen earlier in the month, and that calmness is actually constructive. It suggests that panic has temporarily subsided and the market is trying to find balance.

What becomes critical now is monitoring how STHs react as Bitcoin approaches their realized price. If they hold and confidence increases, BTC could gain enough stability to push higher. If they sell aggressively, renewed downside pressure could quickly return. The next move from this cohort will likely set the tone for the coming weeks.