Since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the price-driving logic of Bitcoin has shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain capital and leverage, with five signals jointly determining the direction of this bull and bear cycle.

ETF determines the institutional foundation, funding rates amplify or weaken momentum, stablecoins supplement native capital, holder structure determines risk resistance, and macro liquidity controls capital costs.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

First, ETF capital flows are the core incremental engine. Data from Gemini and Glassnode shows that spot ETFs hold over 515,000 bitcoins in total, which is 2.4 times the issuance by miners during the same period. Research confirms that ETF capital inflows have much greater explanatory power for price movements than traditional crypto variables.

In the first quarter of 2024, a net inflow of $12.1 billion directly pushed bitcoin to break historical highs; in November 2025, a net redemption of $3.7 billion (the largest monthly outflow since launch) caused the price to fall from $126,000 to the $80,000 range. Now, a single-day outflow of $500 million from IBIT has an impact comparable to that of on-chain whale operations.

Second, perpetual funding and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle. The current annualized funding rate is stable at 8%-12%, with peaks above 20% often indicating a local top, while severely negative funding rates correspond to cycle lows.

During the period when ETF capital turned negative in November 2025, open interest in futures declined and funding rates were low, resonating with the drop in coin prices. When ETF inflows surge while funding is sluggish, it indicates sustained demand; if funding rates soar but ETF capital stagnates, it signals a short-term bubble driven by leveraged chasing.

Third, stablecoin liquidity is the cornerstone of the native market. In 2024, stablecoin supply grew by 59%, with transfer volume reaching $27.6 trillion. Changes in their supply and exchange balances often lead price fluctuations.

When ETF capital and stablecoin supply are both positive, bull market momentum is strongest; when both turn negative simultaneously, the speed and magnitude of declines are exacerbated. ETFs are the institutional entry point, while stablecoins determine the marginal capital scale of native traders.

Fourth, the evolution of holder structure reshapes market resilience. Long-term holders (LTH) once reached a historical high in holdings, tightening circulating supply, but the proportion of short-term "hot capital" rose to 38%, making the market more sensitive to capital flows. In November 2025, when prices fell below key cost ranges, it was directly related to LTH dispersing holdings to ETFs and exchanges, weakening support.

Fifth, macro liquidity transmits shocks through ETFs. Bitcoin's beta coefficient to global liquidity changes reaches 5-9 times (gold 2-3 times, stocks 1 time), making it a high-beta macro asset. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, real yields, and other factors are quickly transmitted to spot and derivatives markets through ETF capital flows.

The autumn 2025 sell-off was precisely a chain reaction triggered by liquidity tightening and the collapse of rate cut expectations, leading to ETF capital outflows.

These five signals are like interlocking gears: ETF determines the institutional foundation, funding rates amplify or weaken momentum, stablecoins supplement native capital, holder structure determines risk resistance, and macro liquidity controls capital costs. When all five move in the same direction, coin prices are likely to rise; if there is divergence, a decline is highly probable.