TAC/USDT Long-Term Outlook: Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
The daily TAC/USDT chart shows a sharp decline immediately after listing (mid-July 2025): a giant red candle from about 0.0500 USDT down to near 0.0101 USDT. Since then, price has consolidated around the 0.012–0.014 range. The current price is ~$0.012896 (down ~3.2% today), with a 24h range 0.012533–0.013754 USDT and 24h turnover ~26.16M USDT (≈2 billion TAC) indicating very high trading volume and liquidity. Volume bars have spiked massively (1.56B tokens last day vs MA(5)-volume ≈626.92M), suggesting intense initial selling and sustained interest above average.
Moving Averages: The short-term EMA(5) is ~0.014034 (above price), while longer EMAs (10,20) are not yet shown (likely insufficient history). Price below EMA(5) signals continued short-term bearish bias. The AVL (average line) is 0.013042, also above the current price, confirming price is below its short-term average.
Parabolic SAR: The SAR dot is at 0.046157, far above price, reflecting the downtrend (SAR above price = resistance). Until price breaks above the SAR line, the bias remains downward.
MACD: On the 1D chart the MACD indicator (12,26,9) shows DIF = –0.001837, DEA = –0.001113, and MACD histogram –0.000724 (red). The MACD line (DIF) is below the signal line (DEA), with negative histogram bars. This indicates bearish momentum is still in force, though the narrowing histogram may hint at slowing sell-pressure.
Support/Resistance: Immediate support appears near the post-drop low (~0.0100–0.0120 USDT). If 0.010 holds, it may form a base; a breach below 0.010 could trigger deeper sell-off. On the upside, the first resistance is around ~0.014–0.0145 (recent highs and the EMA(5) level), then ~0.02. Farther out, the old all-time high near 0.050 is a distant target, but any sustained rally would first need to clear 0.02–0.03. The 24h high of 0.013754 and the average “buy” line at 0.013127 act as short-term hurdles.
Fundamental Analysis
TAC (TAC Protocol) is a new Layer-1 blockchain built to bring Ethereum-style DeFi into the TON/Telegram ecosystem. Its core value proposition is EVM-compatibility with direct integration into Telegram’s 1+ billion users. In practice, TAC enables users to run Ethereum dApps (e.g. Curve, Morpho, Euler) inside Telegram. At launch (Jul 15, 2025) the TAC mainnet went live, and within 24h over $800 million TVL was locked via a “liquidity campaign” (in partnership with TurtleClub). This significant TVL and a recent $28.5M Series A for parent firm TOP Labs (now valued ~$1B) underscore strong institutional and community backing. The project is also integrated with chains like LayerZero and Blockscout for messaging and oracles.
Tokenomics: The TAC token has a circulating supply ~2.05 billion (market cap ~$26.2 million) out of a total 10 billion. About 18% of tokens were in circulation at launch, with the rest vesting over time. TAC serves as the gas, staking, and governance token of the network. The team has designed emissions to be relatively low (~2–5% annual inflation) and tied to staking rewards, suggesting long-term value accrual as network usage grows.
Ecosystem & Adoption: Over 15 major DeFi dApps are expected at launch (including Curve, Euler, etc. inside TON/Telegram). The chain’s deep integration means users pay fees in TON, which partially purchase TAC, creating built-in demand. The strategic tie-in with TON (The Open Network) also positions TAC as TON’s dedicated DeFi layer, potentially unlocking a massive on-ramp of existing Telegram/Ton users.
Market Presence: On July 15, TAC was listed across major exchanges (Binance Alpha, Kraken, Bitget, Bybit, WEEX). These listings greatly enhance liquidity – indeed, 24h volume ~$25–26M is roughly 100% of its market cap. TAC is also available in the new Telegram Wallet, reinforcing the project’s strategy to leverage Telegram’s user base. In sum, TAC’s foundation is strong: a novel product-market fit (Ethereum DeFi in Telegram), high-profile backers, and immediate exchange/liquidity support.
Price Prediction
Given its nascent status, forecasts vary widely. Some technical/market commentators are optimistic: for example, one analysis predicts TAC could double from current ~0.0129 to ~$0.025–0.028 by late 2025 (surpassing its old ATH ~0.0256). By 2026, these forecasts see TAC potentially reaching $0.03–0.04, and by 2027/2028 climbing into the $0.05–0.06 range (assuming continued DeFi adoption and bullish market conditions). Longer-term (2030+), some technical models project multi-fold gains (potentially $0.06–0.10+), though such forecasts are highly speculative.
Fundamentally, if TAC successfully delivers on its promise – capturing a fraction of Telegram’s huge user base and Ethereum’s DeFi value – it could trade at substantially higher levels in years. Probable near-term support is $0.01 (psychological round number and initial low). On the upside, breaking **$0.014–0.015** (recent highs) would open the way to $0.02. Further resistance lies near the prior mini-peak $0.025–0.028, then 0.03+, and potentially much higher if market sentiment turns extremely bullish. However, given the massive crash post-listing, cautious analysts may temper expectations in the short term.
Trading Strategy
For a prospective buyer at $0.012896, risk management is key. The chart is still bearish (price < short EMAs, negative MACD). A buy-on-dips approach can be considered: for example, one could start small at current levels, and add more only if price holds near support (~0.012 or down toward 0.010). Historically, Binance analysts suggested accumulating around their then-support (~0.0196, now irrelevant) and targeting ~0.025–0.028. Likewise, a conservative stop-loss might be placed just below the ~$0.010 support (or around $0.011–0.012) to limit losses if the downtrend continues.
Entry: Current level is within the consolidation range. If conviction is low, one could wait for minor signs of reversal (e.g. MACD turning up or price reclaiming EMA(5)). Contrarily, an aggressive trader might scale-in now with small positions, aiming to lower the average if more dips occur.
Stop-Loss: A prudent stop-loss could be set around $0.010–0.011, just under recent lows, to guard against a breakdown. This corresponds roughly to a ~10-15% downside from today’s price.
Targets: Short-term upside targets include the recent highs (~$0.014–0.015). If that zone is breached on strong momentum, $0.02 is a logical next resistance (and coincides with pre-panic levels). For long-term holders, larger targets could be $0.03–0.05 if TAC’s fundamentals play out. For instance, returning toward the all-time launch price (near $0.05) would require major catalysts, but interim targets like ~$0.04 are often cited by long-term forecasts.
In summary, caution is warranted at current levels. The trade requires balancing the project’s strong long-term promise with the reality of a volatile launch and downtrend. A mix of averaging in gradually, tight stops, and realistic targets (e.g. 0.014–0.02 in near-term) is advisable, rather than assuming an immediate sharp rebound.
$TAC