Shrek2HulkSimbaAnusHannahMontanInu 價格ETH

$ETH Here’s a weekend lookout for Ethereum (ETH) — key support and resistance zones, possible scenarios, and things to watch. Use it as a guide, not a guarantee (crypto is volatile). --- 🔍 Key Support & Resistance Areas Support Zones Around US$4,120 – US$4,100: According to recent technical commentary this is an important support trend-line and hourly pivot. Deeper support near US$4,000: If the above fails, this round figure/psychological level often acts as a floor. Further down: If things really break, zones in the US$3,800-US$3,900 vicinity are mentioned. Resistance Zones Near US$4,200-US$4,240: A short-term hurdle that ETH needs to clear for bullish momentum. Broader resistance around US$4,700-US$4,900+: These are old highs / strong structural resistance zones if ETH climbs back toward them. --- 🎯 Weekend Scenarios & What to Watch Scenario A: Support Holds → Bounce Price retraces toward ~4,100 or so, but finds buyers and rebounds. In that case, look for a bounce up toward the 4,200+ region. If that breaks, could target higher levels. Monitor volume and momentum: a strong bounce with volume suggests the support is meaningful. Scenario B: Break of Support → Downside Risk If ETH closes convincingly below ~4,100 (especially on higher timeframe), risk increases that it heads toward ~4,000 or the 3,800-3,900 zone. Watch for liquidity sweeps or “stop hunts” around the 4,100 region that trigger bleed. Scenario C: Break Resistance → Upside Opportunity If ETH rises toward ~4,200-4,240 and breaks through that zone with conviction (volume + follow-through), upside opens toward the next major resistance zones (~4,700-4,900). But must break and hold above that first barrier to avoid a false breakout. Scenario D: False Breakout / Range Trap A common risk: ETH pops up into resistance (4,200-4,240) but fails to hold, then reverses and drops toward support. Similarly, a breakdown below support could be a trap if it recovers quickly back above. Always watch for confirmation (close, volume) rather than assuming the first touch tells the whole story. ---

某巨鲸卖出 2,227.8 亿枚 PEPE换得 394 枚 ETH，约 合151.6 万美元 据Onchain Lens监测，这位巨鲸卖出了全部 2,227.8 亿枚 PEPE，换得 394 枚 ETH，价值约 151.6 万美元，在持有 100 天后亏损约 102 万美元。随后，他将 147 万美元的 USDT 兑换并存入 Aster。#ETH #PEPE #ASTER

Despite a recent market crash, short-term retail traders are showing strong, aggressive optimism by significantly increasing their long positions on major cryptocurrencies. Data reveals that this extreme positioning is setting up retail for a liquidation cascade, suggesting that hopes for a quick V-shaped recovery may be fading. 1. Key Factor: Extreme Retail Sentiment (Net Open Long Positions) Retail traders are overwhelmingly bullish in the derivatives market, betting heavily on a rebound: Key Finding (Net Open Long Positions): The Long Ratio for retail accounts across major cryptocurrencies is at an extreme level, ranging from 68% to 79% for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and HYPE. For example, BTC has 68% of retail accounts long (97th percentile), and SOL is at 79% long (98th percentile). Specific Evidence of Positioning: On major exchanges like Binance, the Long/Short Account Ratio is similarly high (e.g., 2.1 for BTC and 3.7 for SOL). This suggests a large number of retail accounts are expecting a V-shaped market recovery after the sharp October 11 decline. 2. Consequence: Liquidation Risk and Negative Correlation This extreme bullish positioning carries a severe, immediate risk: Consequence (Liquidation Risk): The aggressive long positioning exposes retail traders to a high risk of liquidation. Recently, over $1.1 billion in positions were liquidated, with $873 million coming directly from long trades. This liquidation surge indicates that retail optimism is struggling under continuous selling pressure. Negative Correlation: Data from Hyblock shows a strong negative correlation between rising long ratios and price movements: as long ratios rise, prices tend to fall (e.g., BTC correlation of -0.93). This pattern suggests retail longs may face mounting unrealized losses. 3. Potential Effect on the BTC Price The current positioning makes a swift V-shaped recovery unlikely: Potential Effect: Excessive liquidations drain retail traders' capital, meaning that even if altcoins drop to lower prices, these traders may no longer have the funds to buy back in. This lack of available capital to buy the dip makes a quick V-shaped recovery unlikely and is expected to keep the market volatile and range-bound at lower levels. Conclusion Retail traders are engaging in a high-risk gamble by aggressively increasing their long positions in October despite mounting market instability. The extreme positioning (up to 79% long) has already resulted in a $1.1 billion liquidation event and is negatively correlated with price, suggesting further losses are likely. The current setup dampens the probability of a fast recovery, leaving the market highly vulnerable to continued downward pressure as the hopes of a V-shaped bounce fade. Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Nearly $6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are expiring, injecting high volatility into a market already rattled by rising bearish bets and macro uncertainties. This mass expiry often triggers short-term trend shifts, and the current positioning suggests traders are bracing for further downside risk. 1. Key Factor: Expiry Value and Max Pain Price The derivatives market is heavily tilted toward downside protection ahead of the expiry: Total Value Expiring: The total notional value of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring is nearly $6 billion. Bitcoin (BTC): Open Interest is 43,905 BTC, with a notional value exceeding $4.79 billion. Ethereum (ETH): Open Interest is 251,884 ETH. Max Pain Price (Where Options Expire Worthless): Bitcoin (BTC) Max Pain: $116,000 (Current price is near $108,969). Ethereum (ETH) Max Pain: $4,100 (Current price is near $3,921). 2. Effect on Volatility and Market Direction Bearish positioning is driving the immediate outlook, confirming a defensive posture among large traders: Effect on Volatility: Large-scale expiries frequently lead to market jitters and heightened volatility as market makers adjust their hedges. The options skew has turned sharply negative, reflecting the heaviest demand for downside protection since the crash on October 11. Bearish Direction: The overall expected market direction immediately following the expiry is defensive and cautiously bearish. Data shows a recent influx of over $1.15 billion into short-term Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Put Options, signaling that market makers and liquidity providers are aggressively positioning for a price retracement. 3. Price Targets and Macro Overhangs Potential Bottom Target: Traders are eyeing $93,500 as a potential bottom for Bitcoin. Recovery Threshold: $100,000 is cited as a short-term upside target should a bounce occur. Macro Headwinds: The bearish sentiment is intensified by political volatility (erratic remarks on tariffs) and recent crypto-specific stress, such as the reported $50 million loss by Selini Capital through a failed basis trade unwind. Conclusion The nearly $6 billion options expiry is taking place amidst a distinctly bearish market environment, as evidenced by the large flows into downside hedges (puts) and the sharp negative turn in options skew. With both Bitcoin and Ethereum trading below their respective Max Pain levels ($116,000 and $4,100), the market is positioned defensively, suggesting that the path of least resistance in the immediate future is likely downward, toward potential support near $93,500 for Bitcoin, unless macroeconomic conditions or leveraged distress stabilizes quickly. Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

I remember getting somewhat ridiculed for my views on BTC a couple of years ago Things like, “where’s the money going to come from?” or “it’s too optimistic”… etc Now I’m getting similar reactions for my views on ETH… good!