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Former Bloomberg analyst: When NVU reaches the level of 180-200 times, it indicates that the market is overly enthusiastic

Former Bloomberg analyst: When NVU reaches the level of 180-200 times, it indicates that the market is overly enthusiastic

2024/02/29 02:37
Former Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts CMT published " Cryptocurrency Fundamental Analysis: Network Value and User Ratio" on the X platform. He stated that the Network Value to Users (NVU) ratio is an ideal but far from perfect fundamental indicator for blockchain assets. The premise is simple--network value depends on utility, measured by user numbers (DAUs) and other chain parameters (transactions, transfer values, fees/Gas etc).
 
Two weeks ago, Real Vision's latest report revealed how cheap the SCP universe was compared to the past. Since then, prices have risen about 15%. The price increase exceeded DAUs' growth of around 5%, causing a slight rise in NVU ratio to 88x. Despite a slight increase in multiple expansions over the past few weeks, I expect that by 2025, the SCP industry will continue to rise from its current $562 billion to $1.5-1.8 trillion - an increase of approximately two-to-three times - based on continued positive user growth momentum into 2025 (our DAU should reach from currently 6-7 million up to 11 million), and some multiple expansion in late bull markets. When NVU reaches levels of 180-200x it should serve as a fundamental warning signal indicating excessive market enthusiasm; we are nearing peak cycle.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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