Bitget App
Trade smarter
Open
HomepageSign up
Bitget>
News>
Tech giants expect usable quantum computer to arrive this decade

Tech giants expect usable quantum computer to arrive this decade

Cryptopolitan2025/08/12 12:06
By: By Jai Hamid
GROK0.00%
Share link:In this post: IBM and Google say they can build a large-scale quantum computer before 2030. Amazon warns it could take 15–30 years to reach a truly useful system. Qubit instability, high costs, and complex error correction remain major hurdles.

Tech companies in the United States are racing to scale quantum computer systems from lab prototypes to industrial machines, according to details shared by IBM, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and others.

Breakthroughs in chip design and error correction have narrowed technical gaps, putting a decade-long target within reach for some, while others warn the road will be far longer.

IBM’s announcement in June laid out a full-scale design that fills missing engineering details from earlier plans. Jay Gambetta, who leads the company’s quantum program, said they now have a “clear path” to a machine that can outperform classical computers in tasks like materials simulation and AI modeling before 2030.

Google’s quantum research team, led by Julian Kelly, removed one of its biggest technical barriers last year and says it will also deliver before the decade ends, with Kelly calling all remaining problems “surmountable.”

Companies push to solve scaling challenges

Amazon’s quantum hardware chief Oskar Painter warned that even with major physics milestones behind them, the industrial phase could take 15–30 years. The leap from fewer than 200 qubits — the basic quantum units — to more than one million is needed for meaningful performance.

Scaling is hampered by qubit instability, which limits their useful state to fractions of a second. IBM’s Condor chip, at 433 qubits, showed interference between components, an issue Rigetti Computing CEO Subodh Kulkarni described as “a nasty physics problem.” IBM says it expected the issue and is now using a different coupler to reduce interference.

See also Elon Musk thrills X with free global Grok 4 access

Early systems relied on individually tuned qubits to improve performance, but that’s unworkable at large scale. Companies are now developing more reliable components and cheaper manufacturing methods.

Google has a cost-reduction goal of cutting parts prices tenfold to build a full-scale system for $1 billion. Error correction, duplicating data across qubits so the loss of one doesn’t corrupt results, is seen as a requirement for scaling.

Google is the only one to show a chip where error correction improves as systems grow. Kelly said skipping this step would lead to “a very expensive machine that outputs noise.”

Competing designs and government backing

IBM is betting on a different error correction method called low-density parity-check code, which it claims needs 90% fewer qubits than Google’s surface code approach. Surface code connects each qubit in a grid to its neighbors but requires more than one million qubits for useful work.

IBM’s method requires long-distance connections between qubits, which are difficult to engineer. IBM says it has now achieved this, but analysts like Mark Horvath at Gartner say the design still only exists in theory and must be proven in manufacturing.

Other technical hurdles remain: simplifying wiring, connecting multiple chips into modules, and building larger cryogenic fridges to keep systems near absolute zero.

See also Micron hikes Q4 outlook on AI chip surge

Superconducting qubits, used by IBM and Google, show strong progress but are difficult to control. Alternatives like trapped ions, neutral atoms, and photons are more stable but slower and harder to connect into large systems.

Sebastian Weidt, CEO of UK-based Universal Quantum, says government funding decisions will likely narrow the field to a few contenders. Darpa, the Pentagon’s research agency, has launched a review to identify the fastest path to a practical system.

Amazon and Microsoft are experimenting with new qubit designs, including exotic states of matter, while established players keep refining older technologies. “Just because it’s hard, doesn’t mean it can’t be done,” Horvath said , summing up the industry’s determination to reach the million-qubit mark.

Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free .

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

When the market complains about CZ, people begin to miss SBF

SBF interview: The bankruptcy lawyers won, the creditors received full repayment, and the one who could have made them even richer is now waiting for the day when the world recognizes the truth.

ForesightNews 速递2025/10/16 10:14
MegaETH Valuation Game: A Good Entry Opportunity or Approaching Risk?

Is this a good time to enter the market?

ForesightNews 速递2025/10/16 10:14
Crypto Tokens: A Hunting Game Disguised as "Belief"?

The crypto market does not reward followers, but only those who can see through illusions.

ForesightNews 速递2025/10/16 10:14
Against the trend, has Morpho perfectly replicated the core mechanisms of traditional asset management?

Deposit collateral, borrow funds, deposit the borrowed funds again as new collateral, and repeat the cycle—continuously adding leverage to this fundamentally institution-level strategy-based market-neutral basket.

ForesightNews 速递2025/10/16 10:13

Trending news

More
1
The Ethereum community collectively gives a thumbs up: Has ZK technology finally moved from the lab to production-grade tools?
2
When the market complains about CZ, people begin to miss SBF

Crypto prices

More
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
BTC
$111,449.88
-1.02%
Ethereum
Ethereum
ETH
$4,056.74
-2.22%
Tether USDt
Tether USDt
USDT
$1
-0.04%
BNB
BNB
BNB
$1,184.72
-0.44%
XRP
XRP
XRP
$2.44
-2.45%
Solana
Solana
SOL
$195.66
-4.88%
USDC
USDC
USDC
$0.9998
-0.03%
TRON
TRON
TRX
$0.3229
+0.67%
Dogecoin
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.1996
-2.20%
Cardano
Cardano
ADA
$0.6785
-2.89%
How to sell PI
Bitget lists PI – Buy or sell PI quickly on Bitget!
Trade now
Become a trader now?A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users!
Sign up now
Trade smarter