A single sentence, "Could drop by 99%": Arthur Hayes and Monad ignite a heated debate across the entire network

Original Title: "A Showcase of the Heated Debate Between Monad Founder and Arthur Hayes"

Original Author: jk, Odaily

On November 29, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes publicly criticized Monad—which had just launched its mainnet six days prior—during an interview with Altcoin Daily, claiming it "could drop by 99%" and labeling it as "yet another high market cap, low float VC coin." These remarks quickly went viral, prompting Monad co-founder Keone Hon to respond directly on X, leading to a fierce public confrontation between the two.

The following is a complete record of their conversation.

Full Dialogue

· Keone Hon, Monad Founder

Dear @CryptoHayes, I respect everything you have built for this industry. Perpetual contracts are an amazing innovation, and I believe they will continue to grow rapidly. You have had a huge impact on our industry.

Over the past few days, I’ve seen you comment on Monad several times. While I’m sure some of your remarks may have been taken out of context, I thought you might be interested in what makes Monad different, and why it’s not just another L1.

I believe that when you were innovating at BitMEX, you also had to deal with a lot of FUD, and you simply responded directly and moved forward. That’s what I plan to do as well.

Here are some key points about what makes Monad unique:

· It’s really fast. When you withdraw from Coinbase, the funds arrive in 1-2 seconds. The experience feels almost magical.

· It’s built on an entirely new tech stack, making this speed possible in a highly decentralized network. There are currently 170 globally distributed validator nodes, with more to come.

· This is important because while everyone says blockchains must be centralized, must be data center chains (or single sequencer) to achieve high performance, Monad proves the opposite is possible. Enterprises, asset issuers, and global developers want decentralization and credible neutrality—they don’t want to be at the mercy of a single sequencer.

· Monad’s codebase is fully open source and audited, built entirely from scratch in C++ and Rust, and incorporates many high-frequency trading-style optimizations.

· Monad introduces MonadBFT, a cutting-edge consensus mechanism that solves the tail fork issue of pipelined consensus. This alone is a huge breakthrough, as BFT consensus itself requires multiple rounds of communication; pipelined (interleaved) block production is the only way to achieve fast block times; but previously, pipelining was vulnerable to a one-block reorg (tail fork) attack, leading to MEV attacks. But not anymore!

· Monad introduces asynchronous execution, further improving efficiency by allowing consensus and execution to proceed in independent lanes. Ethereum is also attempting to adopt this technology.

· Monad also features a range of other technical innovations, such as a full JIT compiler that compiles EVM bytecode to native code, a new database (MonadDb), a new block propagation mechanism (RaptorCast), and parallel execution.

The ecosystem is just getting started, but already there’s a batch of new applications being built by a group of young, driven builders.

· The Monad Foundation and Category Labs team are going all out, ready to keep pushing the field forward. Research contributions in asynchronous execution, gas pricing, and privacy will continue to drive the industry ahead. This is only the sixth day since mainnet launch, and our excellent team will keep doing things differently.

· Finally, MON is the first token on Coinbase’s token sale platform, designed to allow as many people as possible to get tokens before public launch. The token sale used a "bottom-up fill" approach, so whales couldn’t grab the entire allocation like in many other launches.

If you want some MON to try out the network, let me know—I’d be happy to send you some. Thanks again for your contributions to the space, see you on-chain.

· Arthur Hayes, BitMEX Founder, KOL

I know nothing about your technology. I’m sure it’s great, and everyone who mentions you and your team says you’re insanely smart. But your tokenomics almost guarantee that MON will only go down.

Tell your community how this chain can absorb 90% of the tokens without collapsing. Tell your community how much real usage is needed to generate organic demand to absorb the sell pressure after early investors and team members unlock. There’s nothing wrong with them selling—your early supporters and team took risks and deserve good returns. Tell the community how, with staking rewards and about 1% monthly inflation, you plan to maintain this price level. Fucking educate me. I don’t care what your tech does, I’m a trader. Write me a long piece about capital flows and make me look like an idiot.

Until then, MON is a hot potato. It’s fun for short-term trading, but due to supply and demand, the overall trend will only be down.

· Keone Hon

I’m not sure where you’re getting your information, but it’s incorrect.

The inflation rate is 2% per year, much lower than almost all other L1s.

Locked tokens cannot be staked, which is also quite unprecedented.

Coinbase’s token sale used a "retail-first fill" approach, prioritizing retail participants.

Everything was built from scratch to meaningfully expand the boundaries of truly decentralized blockchain capability.

Once in a lifetime, worth a try.

I think if you take a closer look at what my team and I are doing, you’ll see a lot of things are different. We’re not just copying the same playbook.

If you have any specific criticisms of Monad, please let me know—I’m all ears.

· Arthur Hayes

Unlock all the tokens now, and then you’ll be different from all the so-called $ETH killers before you. If you’ve got the guts, do it.

· Keone Hon

You didn’t answer my question—do you have any specific criticisms of Monad? I’m pretty sure the companies in your VC portfolio also have locked tokens.

Also, you yourself said you’ve heard our team is talented and the tech is good. What if it actually works? The current state of blockchains can’t be the final form. If we all thought like you, everyone might as well pack up and go home now.

· Arthur Hayes

It’s all about liquidity, bro. Do you dare unlock all the tokens now and let the market find the real price for your coin?

(As of press time, the two sides have not further escalated their exchange.)

Community Reaction: Hayes, You’ve Gone Too Far

This confrontation sparked a lot of discussion in the crypto community, with many questioning the logic behind Hayes’ criticism.

Some dug up Hayes’ previous remarks and asked directly: Then why did you think it could go up to $10 in the first place?

@Doudounadz pointed out that Hayes has never asked these questions about projects he’s invested in: "Strange, you’ve never asked any of these questions to any team you’ve invested in. I don’t really understand this hate, to be honest (though I can probably guess why)."

@gmoneyNFT even called out directly: Then show us—let all the companies in your portfolio unlock all their tokens too.

Some took a more macro view of the debate. @0xMardiansyah believes this highlights the fundamental divide between traders and developers: traders don’t care about technology, only price; while developers painstakingly build from scratch, considering everything including tokenomics, only to be judged by people who just look at the price chart.

@NFT5lut said: Hayes is Monad’s Barry Silbert. Aside from creating panic and getting people to sell so he can buy cheap, he’s never been right about anything.

MON Price Trend

The Monad mainnet officially launched on November 24, with MON token trading starting at the same time.

Notably, MON’s first day of trading was subdued, with the opening price briefly falling below the public sale price—a relatively mild performance for a highly anticipated L1 token. In sharp contrast to recent projects like Plasma that sold out in seconds, MON’s public sale took much longer to clear, but then slowly climbed. However, nearly a week after mainnet launch, MON’s price has dropped from above $0.04 at its peak and is now fluctuating around $0.03.

An Asymmetric Battle of Public Opinion

The interesting thing about this clash is that the two sides aren’t even talking on the same level.

In the arena of public opinion, commentators have more advantage than builders. Hayes made it clear from the start: "I know nothing about your technology," "I don’t care what your tech does, I’m a trader." Hayes’ argument isn’t new—"high FDV, low float VC coins will eventually fall" has been one of the most mainstream narratives in the crypto market over the past two years. Many retail investors have lost money in projects with similar structures, and this collective memory makes any criticism pointing to "VC extraction" resonate easily, especially in a bear market.

In terms of communication effect, Hayes definitely hit the emotional nerve.

For Keone, this is a tough battle to win. Technical advantages take time to prove, ecosystem prosperity requires developers to vote with their feet, while Hayes’ skepticism is immediate, intuitive, and easy to understand.

This is a debate that will never have a conclusion. What will truly decide Monad’s fate is whether, in the coming years, developers actually build something valuable with it.

From this perspective, Keone’s words aren’t wrong: "Once in a lifetime, worth a try."