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Opinion: Bitcoin's market dominance is declining, but it does not mean that the "altcoin season" is coming Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has declined recently, and analysts point out that this does not mean that "altcoin season" is coming. Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, said that Bitcoin's dominance may rise when the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks facing the US dollar; while Bitcoin's dominance may decline when the market focuses on various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto field. Zach Pandl added: "In the next 9 to 12 months, Bitcoin's dominance is more likely to stabilize at around 60% to 70% of the overall market rather than a sharp decline. In the next approximately 9 to 12 months, Bitcoin's market share is more likely to stabilize between 60% and 70% of the overall crypto market rather than a sharp decline. This judgment is not easy, because Bitcoin and altcoins each have different positive factors that may play a role. From a macro perspective, we are bullish on Bitcoin; and from the perspective of technological development and user adoption, we are equally bullish on altcoins. My basic assumption is that Bitcoin's dominance rate will stabilize from now on." (Decrypt)

TL;DR Despite its controversial history, which included years of delaying the actual network launch and token release, Pi Network has grown to be one of the most popular and talked-about projects in the cryptocurrency space. After all, it has been in existence, in some form, for roughly half a decade. During the recent appearance at the 2025 Consensus conference in Toronto, Kokkalis was asked about this growing popularity, where it stems from, and if the community is vocal on Pi or decentralization in general. The project’s co-founder, who is also the head of technology, believes the main reason behind this popularity is the concept of value capture. “In the future, where more and more work is being done by agents and AI, it’s important to make sure that the value is not only captured by a few individuals or a few companies. It can be captured by a large number of people. And that’s where blockchain and our projects can come [in]to play.” He added that Pi Network’s popularity can continue rising if all projects within its ecosystem work toward capturing value for a larger number of people. Just over a week ago, PI’s price started to climb aggressively and it surged from $0.6 to $1.7 within days. This massive ascent transpired after the team behind the project hinted about a big announcement coming on May 14. Once that was revealed , which turned out to be a $100 million fund designated for ecosystem investments, PI started to nose dive. Earlier today, it fell below $0.7 after another double-digit daily decline. As such, it has almost erased all gains registered from the hype-driven rally, which makes it another ‘sell the news’ event.

Will be inactive for a week and a bit. Will be very busy 😵‍💫 Play the game level by level and invalidate when you see fit. Don’t forget to watch your trailing SLs for your spot positions. Will be back soon 😁

Macro EUR/USD Eventually these levels will get hit Whether a war happens or big black swans and depression happen or I don't know what events elites will pull off to bring those levels I will be playing them. This is the game and those are rules and I just play following those rules It's sad that this is the reality, killing people or spreading fear is the tool they use to manipulate markets (movies on these: James Bond (Casino Royale)- Lift) and I am sure there are many more but just mentioned the ones that are also entertaining to watch.

There is a lot of debate on what SPX will do next. The rally that we just had was not that difficult to anticipate, as the market will often get a big bounce after 20-21% drawdowns (especially in short periods of time). The market also will frequently bounce after sweeping lows from a year before (I showed this on youtube back in March/April). I was also clear to expect SPX weakness from Feb OPEX to early-April (as I mentioned many times), but that renewed strength should come in Q2. Well here we are - that all played out. So now what? There has been a lot of debate on this platform as to what lies ahead. Now #SPX is at a crossroads and the short-term direction becomes a little less clear. You can see two analogs below that match 2025 pretty well so far (1980 and 2001), so it's easy if you are in either camp (bear or bull) to provide the analog as evidence that backs your bias. The thesis for either path is actually somewhat believable: 1) The Bear Case The bear case is fairly straightforward: The unemployment rate has been trending up for the last couple of years. The market was looking for a reason to kick off the downturn, and uncertainty from the new administration as it relates to tariffs was the perfect event to swing momentum in the other direction. There has been a huge bounce by SPX, seemingly following announcements of trade deals, but tariffs are still in effect and even tariff pauses do not actually mean pauses (they just mean less tariffs than previously announced). Thus, this phase could simply be the "return to normal" before we have to face the music of rising unemployment and potentially rising inflation once tariffs make their way to the consumer. The reason this could be detrimental is because tariff uncertainty as it relates to inflation could cause the Fed to not cut rates as early as they should, which might increase the chances of a hard landing. Since we had negative GDP in Q1 2025, it would seem reasonable to get a rate cut under normal circumstances (especially with headline inflation at 2.3%). But the Fed is and will likely continue to not cut rates until it becomes more clear how tariffs will affect the inflation data. If the FFR is > r* (the neutral rate), then the economy will continue to slow down. If there is a spike in inflation, the Fed's hands could be tied to come to the rescue of rising unemployment. If this scenario is to play out, then one would expect SPX would make a lower high in May (June at the latest) and put in a new low by Aug/Sep. 2) The bull case The bull case is also straightforward. Markets panicked and had a tariff tantrum over higher than anticipated tariffs. But now that many have been reduced, business can continue as usual. Prices of goods and services might go up but if the consumer is not tapped out, then the economy could simply continue churning along for a while as rising costs of companies just get passed to the consumer (like they always do). A new high by SPX would be more suggestive that the market has shrugged off the tariffs and is no longer that concerned about them. After all, the market has shrugged off plenty of things over the years. This would once again speak to the resilience of the US economy. In that case, it would also make sense for the long end of the yield curve to go higher as the implication would be that the economy is still doing ok, (the long end could also go up in the bear case though too with inflation expectations going through the roof). So like I said, the market is at a crossroads. Buying stocks in early April was not the hard part. The hard part is what comes next. The path for the summer is still open for debate. I think the path could be partially decided on the next macro data points (unemployment rate and inflation next month). If tariffs start to show up in the inflation data, then it would likely put the SPX rally on pause. Or if the unemployment rate trends up this summer, it could also put the rally on pause. If both inflation and the unemployment rate remain low, then the market momentum would likely continue. The good news is that market tops usually take a long time to play out, which is why panic selling early April was never a good idea. It's one of those things where if you look at the market in a month and SPX has still not put in a new high, then it may be time to start bracing for a pullback into Q3. I'll probably reference this post in a few weeks and by that point it will probably be more obvious which path SPX is following. Even in the bear case, stocks would likely only slowly go lower after failing to put in a higher high, which would give people time to make decisions. The next period of major weakness in stocks is likely Aug/Sep. If SPX puts in a higher high soon then Aug/Sep weakness would likely be a higher low. If SPX puts in a lower higher here, then the weakness in Aug/Sep would likely be a lower low (or double bottom). I do think DXY will go to 103-104 in the short-term, but I do not anticipate a big move up by DXY until 2026.