SPX6900の‌価格SPX

Q2 Reflection: Analysis & Execution ✍️ Analysis: With Bitcoin closing & fully mitigating the 104k ♨️ level, SPX closing above the 1M HOB (HTF) and all else I talked about in Hardhome that was bullish before all of this... I would say it's time to lay down on my "July 24' playbook analysis" from a technical perspective. I can't just sit on this and become CAPO, although I also refuse to be mega bullish from a liquidity standpoint, that has not changed. I also think it's still in the cards, I'm just not gonna try and predict it from a TA standpoint for now. If it's gonna happen, it will likely be a narrative driven reversal like this bullish reversal was as moneytaur forecasted. With TA hinting it as it unfolds, which I will then update. But for now, until then, no. By no means whatsoever was I perfect from a HTF TA perspective in Q2, probably marks my worst quarterly performance (prediction wise) since creating "traderdune". But I would not say I was bad, I actually think I was decent. "You were bullish" or "you were bearish" will always flood around. But I was bullish at the bottom, I have it timestamped. I just couldn't perfectionize it. That was my problem this quarter, I was chasing perfection. I was basically perfect for every other quarter nailing every HTF reversal with forecasts released months in advance, but I should have known that was not sustainable and maybe I took that for granite. I released my Q2 analysis stating a golden dawn is coming, I was right, but me seeking perfection got in my way of seeing that I was right. My criteria was, TOTAL, TETHER, TOTAL2 and BTC taking the key liquidity levels I marked on Hardhome. Everything did besides BTC, and BTC front-ran it by just $2k (Bottomed at 74k, key liquidity was at 72k). Right there is about 80% of what I needed for a reversal + confluence from the bearish news I mentioned... yet I wanted 100%. Why? My haters will say it's because I just wanted to be right. I just wanted to have the #1 track record on CX. But in reality from my knowledge, I truly did think Bitcoin needed to hit at-least minimum pATH. Did I see Bitcoin rocketing up 41% without taking ANY liquidity, I did not. (Remember, this was a rare instance where there was no liquidity from the 85k-73k range). That's why I then released my July 24' playbook analysis. Overall, I think I did good from a TA perspective at the pico bottom as I was bullish. But as we started going higher, I didn't see it coming because of BTC never pulling back. I think it was foolish of me doubting my own "Golden Dawn" analysis just because Bitcoin missed by 2k making me 80% right instead of 100%. I truly think from a Bitcoin TA perspective this move was unpredictable and a low probability scenario played out, but everything else made sense. This was mainly a narrative driven reversal, something I will pay attention to more going forward. Execution: At the end of the day, this is all that matters and I was profitable the whole way up with shorts and spot longs. Timeline wise, it was actually the opposite for me, I did well on the way up but not at the bottom and that was just as foolish. Chasing perfection prevented me from buying the bottom I basically forecasted. I posted many key alt levels and ignored them all because Bitcoin was 2k short. Those alt levels now mark pico bottoms for 100%+ gains. But, it is what it is. As for the way up, I can't complain how I performed. I think that's the biggest takeaway from my Q2 if your someone who learns from my content. My bias was clearly doubting this run, yet I still entered spot and made good profits. I never chased once, I scanned several charts and waited patiently for liquidity pullbacks and indeed got some. I was wrong, but that did not force me to be sidelined. Like I said before I released my personal analysis, "I can be wrong, but I will profit regardless". There is a difference between trading & technical analysis, my Q2 public performance shows you that. Most won't ever get that, that's why they will inevitably never be profitable. "You got rekt" in response to someone posting inaccurate TA. They don't assume they had any hedges, they auto assume they did not use proper risk management. It is what it is, these people will always exist in this space but it's important to realize those people are not profitable or else they would not bother to comment such brainless negativity. Overall, only self-criticism I have is my execution at the bottom. I did follow my plan, but I think my plan was too harsh. I chased perfection. Like I said, "I'm remaining sidelined on SPOT until BTC takes liquidity or MS is reclaimed, as stated multiple times." I told everyone to buy the bottom, like you can see from the timestamped tweets and from Hardhome. I said enter key levels on alts once majors hit key liquidity, I didn't follow my own rules because of wanting perfection. The reason for this, is different then my TA reason for chasing perfection... I made enough money from spot this bull market. My realized performance from 24' is well over 1,000% thanks to moneytaur and others like zeroika who transformed me into what I am today. I never even had a POSITIVE year to end performance in a bull market before that due to HODL mentality. I did not feel the need to put SPOT capital back into HTF risk, and I can't blame myself for that when you finally achieved something you kept dying while trying to do. But, looking back at it that's no longer following my system. Key levels are still key levels, no matter what. If I could have done it all over again, de-risked positions would be my approach. So this is what I have in my journal, for those who are interested in what I will be looking to improve on - Narrative Driven Reversals (Needs less TA than I thought it needed, close to 100% but not 100%). - Front-running key levels is always saving it for "later", but that "later" may take longer than anticipated. - Don't chase perfection, if it is not needed. When CMP is within deeper discount scale in small as key levels get taken (don't wait for all), the same way I scale out as CMP is within deeper premium taking key levels, but not all are taken yet.

$ES #SPX500

Aggregated Structure of 3 $SPX orderbooks just changed. There is now 51.96% more asks than bids within a 10% depth. Bids sum: $441,472.22 - Asks sum: $670,852.84 ️⚖️ 🔴️

Bitcoin Weekly Update 12.05.25 – 18.05.25 HTF: Another weekly close above PSH and the M candle high. Bitcoin remains one of the strongest asset across all markets. Attention is peaking as we approach the ATH, which now the next big test. A partial 3W was left just below CMP, not a level I’d long from here, but worth noting. Structurally, it looks like price wants to go for the ATH, but I expect this to be another classic trap: A quick sweep, giga breakout longs pouring in, and then potential for a juicy short. In the unlikely case we truly break and hold ATH on the first approach, I want to see several strong HTF closes above to consider it a confirmed breakout. Just remember 2021: We had multiple daily closes above ATH before nuking into a bear market. They know many watching closes. Context is key. We can always long the pullback after the ATH attempt and if it fails to form a new one, we’re already risk-free and likely in profit. MTF/LTF: BTC ripped through most resistances like they didn’t even exist. Plenty of levels left behind, but I’m only interested in those sitting in discount of their respective swings. I'm well positioned in spot, so I’m not feeling any pressure to chase longs here. I’ll still attempt shorts at key levels with manageable size, same as selling a portion of my assets at those points. If we go higher, spot pays for those small losses. If we drop, I’m hedged and managed to sell something at a high. Win-win. Worst case: I get stopped out and price nukes. But even then, I can still sell spot and recover the loss if i want, just with a slight haircut. Strategic losses. Orderflow & Sentiment: This move has mostly been driven by short liquidations, but we’re entering overheated territory. Caution makes sense. Funding is up compared to the last weeks, but OI hasn’t increased, in fact, it’s been trending down the past two weeks. That tells me new longs aren’t entering aggressively yet. Compared to the mania we saw last time we broke 100k, sentiment is still fairly tame. That leaves room for further upside, but I’m cautious and locking in more gains once momentum starts to fade and we break structure to the down side. TradFi headlines became wildly bullish and the “problems” all seem solved for now. SPX has reached its monthly HOB, and we’re already pretty far up that wall of worry. That doesn’t guarantee a instant crash into a bear market, but a correction to refuel would be healthy and logical. Outlook: Trump continues to announce one nothing-burger after the next. People are getting numb. Crypto shilling is full-on global, I’m getting messages from "normie" friends and family. The stage is set. Euphoria might hit one last time. Many charts suggest there's a bit more room to run and it could come fast. BVOL is at support and BVOL24h has barely moved, so volatility could accelerate in the coming weeks. Once most believe the bull run is about to kick off, it might already be over once again. They’ll buy the top again. Now is not the time to buy. It’s the time to sell. Strategic longs at key levels with solid risk management? Always fine, especially while the buy program still runs hot. Have a great and profitable week ahead. ✌️

$SPX - Still rejected at resistance.