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03:39
Rising oil prices intensify market anxiety, S&P 500 index still has room for decline
According to a report by Golden Ten Data, Paul Chew from Phillip Securities Research stated that the S&P 500 Index still has further room to decline given the continued rise in oil prices. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the index has fallen 7.9% from its peak. He pointed out that during the Gulf War and the Russia-Ukraine war, the index recorded declines of 17% respectively. Chew added, "The market still has further downside potential, especially as oil prices continue to rise."
03:39
Reuters Opinion: If the US were to launch a ground assault, Iran could cause widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region
BlockBeats News, March 30th, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell wrote that a month after the U.S. and Israel launched a strike on Iran, the global crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas supply market has entered the "second-worst scenario." At the same time, the article predicted the worst-case scenario of this round of conflict: It would be a situation of a sharp escalation of conflict—Iran causing widespread damage to the energy infrastructure in the Gulf region through missiles and drones, including oil pipelines, refineries, processing facilities, and export terminals. The most likely trigger for such action would be U.S. ground forces attempting to seize and control Iranian-controlled territory, such as the Kharg Island oil terminal and some small islands in the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment of ground forces is precisely an option that U.S. President Trump is reportedly considering, and U.S. military forces in the region are also continuously gathering. However, even if a military invasion succeeds tactically, it would be meaningless if it triggers massive destruction of the energy infrastructure, as it would escalate the already severe market crisis into an unprecedented global energy disaster. Looking at Brent crude futures, the market is still largely betting that the situation will cool down and eventually restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent futures rose 2.7% to about $115.55 per barrel, higher than the $112.57 per barrel at the close on March 27. Since closing at $72.48 per barrel on February 27 (the day before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran), Brent prices have risen by 59%.
03:36
Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar hit multi-month lows as Middle East conflict drags down global growth expectations
On Monday, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by as much as 0.5% to 0.6842 US dollars, declining for the seventh consecutive trading day and reaching its lowest level since January 23. The New Zealand dollar against the US dollar fell by as much as 0.42% to 0.5722 US dollars, declining for the fifth consecutive trading day and hitting its lowest level since January 15. Investors are flocking to the US dollar as a safe haven due to the protracted conflict in the Middle East leading to soaring energy costs, overshadowing the outlook for global economic growth.Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists have stated that the market's reassessment of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hike boost for the Australian dollar has peaked. When the market lowers its global economic outlook, the Australian dollar often drops, usually sharply. Last week, the Australian dollar closed down 2.1%, marking its largest weekly decline since April. With the technical support level of 0.6897 US dollars breached, the Australian dollar risks falling back to 0.6700 US dollars.Pakistan has stated it is ready to host "substantive talks" in the coming days aimed at ending the Iran conflict. Yemen's Houthi forces launched their first attack on Israel since the outbreak of the conflict, and Brent crude May futures rose by more than 3% at one point in early Monday trading to 116.75 US dollars. HSBC analysts expect the Australian economy to contract in the second quarter after two rate hikes this year, as rising fuel prices will erode consumer spending.The Australian Prime Minister announced that petrol and diesel taxes will be halved for three months to alleviate surging energy costs. Victoria and Tasmania have announced free public transport to encourage people to reduce driving. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its March policy meeting on Tuesday, and the market will pay close attention to how members balance inflation and growth risks.
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