News

1. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that it has formulated a long-term plan to deplete the strength of the US and Israel; 2. US President Trump: (on the Iran issue) All countries can go to the Strait and seize oil on their own; 3. A new address deposited 9.6 million USDC into HyperLiquid and took a 20x leveraged long position on CL crude oil; 4. Iran claims to have attacked a secret US military command center in the UAE; 5. MetaPlanet has received $255 million in financing, and may purchase over 3,800 BTC; 6. The complete source code of Claude Code has been exposed; 7. Iranian official: US mistakes have caused the world to "lose the Strait of Hormuz"; 8. A new address withdrew 1,000 BTC worth $67.25 million from an exchange.

On March 31, on-chain detective ZachXBT monitored that a user of an exchange reportedly suffered a social engineering attack, resulting in a loss of approximately $18.2 million. About 45 minutes earlier, the attacker started their operation, using a SafePal wallet and transferring assets cross-chain from the Ethereum network to the Bitcoin network via the THORChain protocol.

Foresight News reports that Wintermute stated in an article that the four-week de-escalation window is coming to an end, yet there are still no signs of resolution. Brent crude oil prices remain above $112, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the probability of interest rate hikes continues to climb. The macro ceiling for risk assets is lower than it was a month ago, making it difficult for Bitcoin prices to stay above $70,000 for long. The March 27th expiry date not only cleared $14 billion of risk exposure, but also eliminated the delta hedging flows that previously kept spot prices fluctuating around key strike zones. Without this passive buying and selling structure to provide support, the market is more susceptible to one-sided moves due to reduced liquidity. Coupled with negative ETF flows in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and high perpetual contract leverage but with no clear direction amid cyclical low volatility, this type of market landscape is unlikely to evolve slowly—it is more likely to erupt suddenly. If credible diplomatic progress is made and oil prices fall back to around $100, short sellers will risk being squeezed and Bitcoin may rebound to the $70,000–$74,000 range. If de-escalation continues, the $74,000 resistance could be tested. Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices surge to $120, Bitcoin could drop just above $60,000, or, if the cycle repeats, even fall to the $50,000–$55,000 range. More importantly, the directional issue here is secondary compared to the market structure itself. Perpetual contract leverage is high, funding rates are fluctuating within the narrowest range on record, and volatility is compressing. Regardless of which way the catalysts play out, the market structure suggests that the resulting price swings will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, perpetuals, and options pricing.