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BlockBeats News, April 2nd, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin posted, stating, "Trump's national address is equivalent to a commitment to hot war, and the escalation of conflict is now irreversible. Every major judgment we have made since the outbreak of war has been fulfilled—there is no war exit plan, no Strait of Hormuz solution, the oil supply gap is exposed, and the risks of importing countries are highlighted. The brief optimistic rebound this week is entirely as expected: it is a position-based short squeeze, not a fundamental change. Subsequently, Trump delivered a national address. The speech conveyed a dual signal. On the one hand, Trump claimed that military action is "close to completion" and provided a 2–3 week timetable; on the other hand, he threatened that if no agreement is reached, he will strike Iran's power infrastructure with "extreme force." The market's response reflects these two aspects: oil prices surged by over 6% (reflecting conflict escalation), and the U.S. dollar weakened (reflecting the potential expectation of an exit). Our interpretation is that the expression "close to completion" is mainly a domestic political posture, while the threat of escalation is the actual signal of action. When deploying a third carrier strike group and threatening to destroy a country's power grid, the direction is already clear. Last week, we proposed that Easter may mark the point of no return for a hot war escalation. After this speech, we are closer to this threshold than most people realize. The market has not yet priced in this irreversibility. To be blunt: once the choice of hot war is made, there is no turning back. The world is undergoing a structural shift, and most market participants have not yet begun to price it in."

⑴ Crude Oil: Trump declared he would continue a “fierce crackdown” and threatened to attack Iran’s energy facilities and power plants if no agreement is reached. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be sustained in the short term, and supply-demand remains relatively tight. However, as prices rebound to high levels, volatility risk increases. It is recommended to buy on dips and avoid blindly chasing long or short positions.⑵ Fuel Oil: During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, oil-producing countries reduced output, and domestic high-sulfur fuel oil heavily depends on imports. Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounts for 20% of domestic imports, and the supply gap is difficult to recover in the short term. Geopolitical sentiment remains tight, with prices mainly fluctuating at high levels.⑶ Glass: Recently, more float glass production lines have been drained, with the industry’s daily output at 143,100 tons. Orders from deep-processing factories remain weak, with limited increase in industry order days. Supply remains low and rising energy costs provide some price support, but demand expectations are not strong. Price is expected to fluctuate widely. Amid increased production line draining, the long glass–short soda ash strategy may be worth attention.⑷ Soda Ash: The market trend is stable to slightly weak, with prices of some companies declining gradually. This week, domestic soda ash production was 772,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.59%. Total inventory reached 1.8861 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from Monday. Social inventories exceeded 340,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons. Recently, downstream cold repairs are accelerating and supply is loose in the medium term, leading to a slightly weak outlook with wide fluctuations.⑸ Caustic Soda: Main downstream deliveries have started to increase. Shandong’s low-grade caustic soda prices remain generally stable, while high-grade prices have rationally declined. National liquid caustic soda sample company inventory rose 0.94% week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate averaging 85.7%, up 1.1%. There is little change in fundamentals, but market volatility has intensified, so wide fluctuations are expected.⑹ Methanol: Current spot price in Taicang is 3,300 (+85); Inner Mongolia north line price is 2,582.5 (-20). Methanol price rebounded sharply today along with other commodities. This week, methanol port sample inventory reached 1.034 million tons, down 121,500 tons from the previous period; producer inventory reached 414,000 tons, down 21,000 tons. Trump’s speech has intensified supply concerns. Supply and demand remain tight, with prices running strong but greater volatility.

Jinse Finance reported on April 2, citing @aixbt, that Polygon processed 493 million stablecoin transactions in February, surpassing the combined total of Solana, Base, Arbitrum, and Ethereum, and accounting for 30% of the global on-chain stablecoin transaction volume. In the same month, 28.2 million POL were burned, setting a new monthly historical high. When pricing POL, the market seems to equate Polymarket with the chain itself. Even after excluding the 55% transaction share occupied by Polymarket, purely payment-related scenarios still bring over 220 million transactions per month. Stripe, Revolut (with a monthly transaction volume of $111 million), and Mastercard all conduct settlement and clearing on Polygon, with active USDC addresses reaching 3.7 million.Polygon has a stablecoin supply of $3.3 billion, while Base has $5 billion. However, Polygon’s USDC transaction volume is six times that of any other public chain. For a payment network, the speed at which funds move is far more important than the static total value locked (TVL). The market is currently pricing liquidity pools, when it should be focusing on processing throughput.If Polymarket were to leave, it could become the best opportunity for POL. This would force the market to reprice it based on its real value: as the global stablecoin settlement and clearing layer, Polygon currently processes at a speed of 2,600 TPS, with a roadmap target of 100,000 TPS.