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08:28
CITIC Securities: The probability of the US and Iran reaching consensus on their core demands is not low
According to Golden Ten Data on April 12, CITIC Securities stated that from the perspective of the US's core demands, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it would become the most crucial result of the war for the US, and also Trump's biggest "achievement" for appeasing domestic audiences. The current round of conflict has already had a significant negative impact on the midterm elections, and it is necessary to exit early. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities, and no US president over the past decades has been able to resolve the issue, severely affecting the US's Middle East strategy. Compared to the political propaganda value of Iran "abandoning its nuclear program," the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on the election. As a result, the Trump administration might be willing to compromise on topics such as control over the Strait of Hormuz. From the perspective of Iran's core demands, this war has proven that blockading the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are extremely important bargaining chips—possibly even more destructive and flexible than the threat of nuclear weapons. Compared to nuclear weapons, which are extremely costly and difficult to control, blockade of the strait and attacks on infrastructure require only low-cost drones to have a huge impact on the US and the global economy, forming Iran's leverage against the US. The fact that both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of massive infrastructure destruction also suggests that the probability of an extreme escalation of the war is not high, and the likelihood of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation is decreasing.
08:26
German hacker involved in a cryptocurrency ransom case arrested in Bangkok, faces 74 charges of cybercrime
According to Odaily, a 27-year-old German hacker, Noah Christopher, was arrested in Bangkok, Thailand, and faces up to 74 cybercrime arrest warrants in Europe. Investigations show that between 2021 and 2025, he allegedly developed and operated ransomware platforms and a “Cybercrime as a Service” (CaaS) system, including providing distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack tools such as Fluxstress and Neldowner, assisting global clients in launching cyberattacks and collecting payments. The associated ransom payments involved cryptocurrency and other digital assets, constituting transnational cybercrime activities. His visa has now been revoked, and he is being detained while awaiting extradition to Germany. (BangkokPost)
08:17
Hyperliquid Platform Whales Hold $3.787 Billion, Long-Short Position Ratio at 1.04
According to Coinglass data, whales on the Hyperliquid platform currently hold $3.787 billion, with long positions amounting to $1.935 billion, accounting for 51.09% of the total positions, and short positions at $1.852 billion, making up 48.91%. The profit and loss for long positions is -$16.8325 million, while for short positions it is $26.3044 million.
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