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Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will Israel and Hezbollah reach a permanent peace agreement?" The probability of a peace agreement being reached before April 26 is currently reported at 9%, while the probability of reaching one before May 31 is reported at 29%. A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that clearly states that the military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will end permanently, or any agreement using similar language clearly indicating a permanent end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements explicitly stated as temporary or not containing a final resolution for the permanent end of military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah (for example, a 10-day ceasefire extension announced on April 16, 2026) do not qualify. The primary sources of information for this market are official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah; however, consensus from other reliable reports can also be referenced. Keep monitoring the prediction market—see changes before they are priced in.

Golden Ten Data reported on April 17 that European Central Bank Governing Council member Müller stated the European Central Bank needs to remain vigilant to respond to inflation risks that may arise from the Iran conflict but should not act rashly. There are currently no signs of broader second-round price effects, and the European Central Bank's current situation is more favorable than in 2022. However, considering the energy shock as temporary and completely ignoring it would be “too dangerous.” He said: “We might be able to exercise a bit more patience and not rush into action. But of course, we also do not want to hesitate and risk falling behind developments.”

Golden Ten Data reported on April 17th that UBS, in its April 16th research report, stated that based on the bank’s baseline scenario, a final diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict will enable investors to refocus on robust economic and earnings fundamentals. The bank noted that during the Middle East crisis, it continued to view global and US stock markets as attractive. UBS expects that the US stock market’s first-quarter earnings season will be strong, highlighting a positive outlook for corporate profits, with earnings per share projected to grow by 17% this quarter—marking the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021. However, the bank also anticipates that the path to a long-term ceasefire in the Middle East will be bumpy. Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, the global energy market will require time to return to normal. Therefore, UBS recently raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of June from the previous $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. In view of the outlook for the energy market, the bank has become more cautious about stock markets most sensitive to rising fuel costs, including the Eurozone and India, and has downgraded their rating from "attractive" to "neutral."