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Glonghui March 26｜Raymond James has raised the target price of Valero Energy from $215 to $290, maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating. (Glonghui)

An account with a win rate exceeding 93% (0x3b8de6b527425e9c19fb2634f9c3d2e7dfaf2ce6) has purchased approximately $150,000 in "under $200" positions for the event "crude oil prices to reach $200 before the end of March," opening the position at around 99.8¢, corresponding to about 150,000 shares. The current price is also about 99.8¢, so this position is essentially at breakeven. There are currently about 4 days and 6 hours remaining until the event settles, and it is still in the late-stage trading window approaching settlement. At present, the geopolitical situation and the policies of major oil-producing countries provide some support to the market. Within the current price range, the market is focusing more on short-term fluctuations rather than extreme upward scenarios. Continue to follow the prediction market and see the changes before pricing in.

(1) Former Bank of Japan Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda said on Thursday that as the war in Iran pushes up crude oil costs and inflation risks intensify, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as June at the latest to avoid falling behind in addressing excessive inflation. (2) He noted that unless the war leads to a severe global recession, the Bank of Japan has no choice but to further raise interest rates. The oil shock will add new inflationary pressures to an economy where prices and wages are already rising steadily. (3) Seisaku Kameda warned that corporate pricing behavior has already changed, making it easier to trigger second-round effects — meaning an initial price shock could develop into broader and more persistent inflation. Therefore, the central bank does not have much time to wait. (4) Last week, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, but Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that Japan has made progress regarding the prerequisites for further rate hikes. Kameda expects the next rate hike will come in April or June. (5) Looking back at last year, the economic impact of Trump’s tariff remarks was smaller than expected, but the Bank of Japan’s delay in raising rates allowed inflation to persist above its 2% target. Kameda stated that the central bank may not want to make the same mistake again; if it waits too long, the supply shock brought on by the war will further accelerate inflation.