News

According to 4E's observation, the crypto market experienced a sudden flash crash on Monday, with over $1.2 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, of which more than 90% were long positions. Bitcoin plunged from $108,000 to $105,000, while Ethereum dropped sharply from $3,700 to $3,500. Both saw liquidation amounts exceeding $100 million within an hour. During the crash, the Bitcoin premium index on a certain exchange remained around -$30, indicating that US investors may have been the main driving force behind the sell-off. Monitoring platform "Embers" showed that the account known as the "Top 100% Win Rate Whale" closed long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL worth $258 million eight hours ago, incurring a loss of $15.65 million, nearly wiping out all profits from the past 20 days. Currently, this account still holds about $148 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $18.86 million. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that the Bitcoin "four-year halving cycle" model may no longer be applicable. His analysis indicated that whale unrealized profit margins are in a neutral range, mining companies continue to expand, ETF and MicroStrategy buying has slowed, short-term whales are near breakeven, while long-term whales still maintain about 53% profit. Overall on-chain data shows that the market has shifted from being cycle-driven to institutionally liquidity-driven. 4E's commentary: The flash crash reflects the fragility of a highly leveraged structure and the correlated pressure from rising US Treasury yields. If Bitcoin enters a "cycle-less" phase, future volatility will depend more on the pace of institutional capital and macro liquidity signals, rather than historical experience.

According to Jinse Finance, citing CNBC, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that retail investors are in a state of "extreme despair," but institutions and financial advisors are still increasing their allocation to bitcoin. Bitcoin recently fell below the 100,000 mark, hitting a new low since June, while ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin (FBTC), and Grayscale (GBTC) continue to see net inflows. Hougan believes that after this sentiment shakeout, bitcoin may bottom out, and it is possible for bitcoin to break through approximately 125,000 to 130,000 and reach a new all-time high within the year. After attracting over 400 million USD in its first week, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) has since dropped about 20% along with the market.