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According to Odaily, Bitcoin has fallen below the $66,000 mark. On-chain data shows that while spot demand has started to absorb selling pressure, it is still insufficient to support a sustained upward trend, and the market remains in a transitional phase. Approximately 8 to 9 million BTC are currently "underwater," with selling pressure above forming ongoing resistance. At the same time, long-term holders are still realizing losses at relatively high levels, indicating that the redistribution of tokens has not yet ended. In terms of capital inflows, Bitcoin ETFs briefly saw two consecutive days of net inflows at the end of March, but then returned to outflows. On April 1, the net outflow from US Bitcoin funds reached $174 million. Implied volatility and skew in the options market have declined and turned towards downside protection, showing that investors are more inclined to hedge risks rather than bet on breakouts. Overall market sentiment is cautious, and trading activity remained light ahead of Easter.

Odaily reported that BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin has recently published an analysis of Trump's national speech: this speech is equivalent to a commitment to a hot war, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is now irreversible. Garrett Jin pointed out that Trump's claims of "military operations nearly complete, ending in 2–3 weeks" are a domestic political gesture; whereas threats to strike Iran's electricity infrastructure and the deployment of a third aircraft carrier strike group are real signals of action. Easter may become an irreversible turning point for the escalation into a hot war, and the current market has not priced this in. He emphasized that the current rally is a short-term squeeze driven by positions, not by fundamental improvements; the war has no exit strategy, the Hormuz stalemate is unsolvable, and the oil supply shortage persists, meaning risks for importing countries will continue to be exposed. Market reactions have already confirmed his analysis: the 6% surge in oil prices reflects escalating conflict, and the weakening US dollar is merely short-term sentiment. He stated bluntly: once the hot war begins, it cannot be withdrawn; the world is entering a structural shift and most participants have not yet started pricing it in.