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BlockBeats News, April 9th: Following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2026 second-quarter oil price expectations: Brent crude oil from $99 to $90 per barrel, WTI crude oil from $91 to $87 per barrel. The bank stated that the ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risk premium, coupled with a gradual recovery in the Hormuz Strait throughput, which are the main reasons for the forecast downgrade. As a result, Brent oil fell about 11% earlier this week. However, Goldman Sachs maintains its second-half oil price forecast unchanged and emphasizes the continued high uncertainty on the supply side:If Middle East supply disruptions persist and production losses worsenIn an extreme scenario, Brent crude oil could rise to $115 per barrelIn addition, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its European TTF natural gas price expectations to €50 per megawatt-hour, but warns that if LNG transport is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to over €75. Overall, while the ceasefire has temporarily eased market tension, the energy market remains geopolitically driven in the medium to long term, with significant ongoing volatility risks.

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on April 9 that the market generally expects the US March CPI annual rate to rise to 3.4%, which is higher than last month's 2.4% and will mark the largest year-on-year increase in two years. Based on previous incidents during oil market shocks, the most likely commodities to see price hikes are aviation fuel, steel, aluminum, natural gas, fertilizers, and plastics. Industries that require these materials are already feeling the pressure. The Iran war has lasted for several weeks, and concerns have extended from the initial impact of rising oil prices to the compounded effects of a prolonged conflict. For an increasing number of economists, the most frightening part is not the immediate problem but the “aftershocks” that may only appear months or even years later. The CEO of JPMorgan referred to inflation as the “fly in the ointment” that could undermine stock market returns in 2026. Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Ken Rogoff recently discussed a neglected impact of the war: increased military spending and its potential effects on the already strained US budget deficit. He noted that this situation carries the risk of a surge in bond yields, which could damage the stock market and affect US affordability. Rogoff also stated that the current supply disruptions caused by the Iran war are enough to keep oil prices elevated for a year.```

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on April 9 that asset management company Nuveen stated in a quarterly outlook report that negative supply shocks are unwelcome for central banks, but the overall outlook remains sufficiently stable for central banks to keep their focus on domestic factors. The institution expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates two more times in 2026, totaling 50 basis points, "but the risk tilts toward a slower pace, with the second rate cut possibly postponed to 2027." Nuveen said the Bank of Japan may raise rates at least once more in 2026, while the European Central Bank may shift toward rate hikes by the end of the year.```