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Bitcoin price retests the February high near 80 thousand, currently consolidating slightly below that level. BTC options data shows changes in positions, volatility expectations, and market sentiment. (glassnode)

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi launched a regional shuttle diplomacy tour on Friday, covering Pakistan, Oman, and Russia. According to Iran's official news agency IRNA, the main focus of this visit is "to conduct bilateral consultations on the current regional situation and the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel." The statement made no mention whatsoever of any hints at a second round of US-Iran talks, creating a sharp contrast to the market’s previous expectations for negotiations.Pakistani officials are actively playing the role of mediator, trying to facilitate a second round of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran. However, so far, only Pakistan and Iran have confirmed meetings with both parties, and there remains no signal as to whether the US side is willing to return to the negotiating table. There is a fundamental gap between unilateral shuttle diplomacy and bilateral talks, and an institutional framework for a ceasefire is still far from being established.Oman, serving as the traditional secret communication channel between the US and Iran, is included in the itinerary, leaving a glimmer of cautious anticipation in the market. However, Russia’s appearance in this diplomatic arrangement is even more notable—Tehran’s parallel engagements with major Eastern powers other than China seem more aimed at strengthening its diplomatic backing rather than paving the way for compromise.This diplomatic movement must be interpreted in contrast with US Secretary of Defense Hegseth's setting of the minefield red line on the same day. As the US further tightens its military options, Iran chooses to expand the scope of its diplomatic activities. The misalignment of both sides’ operational logic means that the conflict is only likely to persist with high volatility rather than converging linearly.The market’s recent retreat of the risk premium based on "ceasefire expectations" has been invalidated. If there is still no timetable or venue confirmed for direct US-Iran talks after Araghchi’s visit, crude oil and shipping insurance pricing will be forced to re-incorporate longer-term risks of a strait blockade, while the window for Pakistan’s mediation is likely to close quickly due to the deep rift in the two parties’ positions.

BlockBeats News, April 24th, according to Arkham data, BlackRock transferred 12,080 ETH to an exchange approximately two hours ago via its Ethereum ETF, ETHA, with a value of around $27.94 million; and transferred 113.342 BTC to an exchange via its Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, with a value of $8.81 million.