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Polymarket's "US-Iran ceasefire before May 15" probability has dropped to 37%, falling 45% in 24 hours. So far, the total trading volume for the "When will US-Iran ceasefire" event contract has surpassed $107 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to halt direct military actions) before the specified date (11:59 PM US Eastern Time), the market will resolve as "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve as "No". A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires both the US government and the Iranian government to publicly confirm that they have agreed to stop military hostilities against each other, or for the formal agreement to be confirmed by an overwhelming consensus in media reports. US Vice President Vance recently reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8 PM US Eastern Time Tuesday (8 AM Beijing Time Wednesday), and stated that Khark Island does not represent a strategic shift. According to two US officials, before Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched strikes on military targets on Khark Island earlier Tuesday (local time). One official said the US struck more than 50 targets on the island. Officials stated the strikes occurred during early Tuesday US Eastern Time and did not target oil facilities. Trump has set Tuesday night (US Eastern Time) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise it will risk devastating attacks on its energy infrastructure. Continue monitoring the prediction market; observe changes before pricing.

②The German DAX index fell by 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.11%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.41%. ③WTI crude oil rose by 2.76%, closing at $115.51 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.95%, closing at $110.81 per barrel. ④It is reported that Iran refused to reach any temporary ceasefire agreement with the United States, with explosions reported after an attack on Khark Island. ⑤IEA issues its sternest warning: a Hormuz blockade could trigger the “strongest energy tsunami in history,” with shocks far exceeding the total of the previous three crises. ⑥Trump’s final ultimatum shakes the market: safe-haven sentiment drags down cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin losing the $70,000 mark. ⑦Broadcom rose by 3.02% in pre-market trading. ⑧Shares of US health insurance companies jumped significantly in pre-market trading, as the US government will raise payment rates for Medicare Advantage plans by 2.48% for insurers in 2027. ⑨Large US tech stocks largely fell in pre-market trading.

The DeFi industry has long regarded security as a technical issue, but the $270 million Drift exploit has revealed more complex threats: not traditional smart contract attacks, but months-long social engineering operations. DeFi protocols are now reassessing their security strategies, focusing on operational security, team vulnerabilities, and designing systems under the assumption that trusted individuals could be compromised.