Standard Chartered raises Bitcoin price target to $150,000 by year-end

Standard Chartered Bank has raised its bitcoin price prediction target to $150,000 from its previous estimate of $100,000.

The new target comes from continued strong inflows in recently launched spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States and, as a result, bitcoin's positive price action, among other factors. "For 2024, given the sharper-than-expected price gains year-to-date, we now see potential for the BTC +1.12% price to reach the $150,000 level by year-end, up from our previous estimate of $100,000," Standard Chartered Bank analysts led by Geoffrey Kendrick wrote in a report on Monday.

Spot bitcoin ETF inflows are outpacing bitcoin derivatives' open interest growth, the analysts said. "This means that while open interest measures are approaching stretched (2021) levels, overall positioning should be more sustainable this time," they said. "Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows."

The price of bitcoin is currently trading at around $68,000. It reached above $73,000 earlier this month.

The bitcoin price target for 2025

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For the end of 2025, Standard Chartered Bank continues to maintain its bitcoin price target of $200,000.

The analysts said this target is "correct" based on the gold analogy. Specifically, the target is based on gold price moves after U.S. gold ETFs were introduced and the gold vs. bitcoin optimization, which suggests 80% gold and 20% bitcoin in the portfolio, the analysts said. "Assuming the gold price stays unchanged, the BTC price would need to increase to $190,000 in order for BTC's share to rise to the 20% indicated by our portfolio optimization," the analysts noted.

However, if spot bitcoin ETF inflows hit the bank's mid-point estimate of $75 billion and/or if forex reserve managers start buying bitcoin, the bank sees a strong possibility of exceeding this target — with the price potentially reaching $250,000 at some point in 2025.

"FX reserves are another large sticky (potential) cash pool, which could follow in the footsteps of new U.S. pension money," the analysts said. "If they do, we would expect the largest and most liquid assets — such as bitcoin — to receive most of the inflows. We see a rising likelihood that large reserve managers may announce BTC buying in 2024," they added.