Goldman Sachs: Future price movements should not be predicted simply based on past halving cycles

PANews reported on April 17 that with only two days left before the fourth Bitcoin mining reward halving, the investment community continues to pay attention to the possible market reaction. This halving reduced the output of Bitcoin per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, the price of Bitcoin rose sharply after the first three halvings. However, Goldman Sachs warned in its latest client advisory that future price movements should not be predicted simply based on past halving cycles.

The Goldman Sachs Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities (FICC) and Equity team noted that while Bitcoin has historically appreciated after each halving, the timing of reaching all-time highs has varied, and macroeconomic conditions have varied during these cycles. It played an important role. The current high inflation and high interest rate environment is different from past macroeconomic backgrounds, which may affect risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.

In addition, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 50% this year, partly due to inflows from domestic spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. According to Bloomberg, the 11 spot-based ETFs launched in the past three months have accumulated assets under management of US$59.2 billion. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Bitcoin halving is a psychological reminder to investors showing its supply limit, and the medium-term outlook will depend on the acceptance and continued demand of these ETFs.